Alaska Air Group (ALK) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.9B
Alaska Air Group
ALK · US
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +12.5% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $35.40 – $66.12 · fair‑value band $14.13 – $19.82 · the $49.21 price screens above the $18.85 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Alaska Air Group (ALK) currently trades at $49.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.85 — implying the stock looks roughly 61.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alaska Air Group generated revenue of $14.4B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. Net debt stands at $6.3B. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.13 (bear case) to $19.82 (bull case); at $49.21, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside — at -62%, ALK screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo in the United States, and in parts of Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas; and for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alaska Air Group reported revenue of $14.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryanair Holdings R1YA34 | R$36.60 | R$6.66 | -82% |
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $79.51 | $73.33 | -8% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL1 | €100.00 | €85.45 | -15% |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group ICAGY | $12.28 | $21.76 | +77% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $41.40 | $12.10 | -71% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,021 | ₹3,704 | -26% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited SINGY | $11.38 | $13.80 | +21% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $55.73 | $106.79 | +92% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.11 | ¥10.28 | +101% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €9.98 | €15.60 | +56% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.