Alaska Air Group (ALK) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.2B
Alaska Air Group
ALK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $18.85 to $37.70 (+100.0%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +5.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($38.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.08 – $76.60 · fair‑value band $28.26 – $38.14 · the $49.96 price screens above the $37.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Alaska Air Group (ALK) currently trades at $49.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.70, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alaska Air Group generated revenue of $14.4B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. Net debt stands at $6.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $28.26 (bear case) to $38.14 (bull case); at $49.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -25%, ALK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($24.76) versus Earnings-Based ($8.68). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional.
Full company description
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo in the United States, and in parts of Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas; and for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alaska Air Group reported revenue of $14.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
ALK screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) Cheap Following Storheden Drilling Results?
- Alaska Air Bets on Loyalty, Long-Haul Growth and Major Fleet Upgrades
- Alaska Air's Hawaiian Integration Reshapes Its Long-Term Growth Story
- Is Most-Watched Stock Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Worth Betting on Now?
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
Compare Alaska Air Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Alaska Air Group (ALK) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ALK?
What is the quality score of ALK?
What is the revenue of Alaska Air Group (ALK)?
What is the net profit margin of ALK?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Alaska Air Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.