China Southern Airlines Company (600029) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 90.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from ¥1.28 to ¥1.58 (+23.8%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.99 – ¥8.29 · fair‑value band ¥0.9163 – ¥1.58 · the ¥5.18 price screens above the ¥1.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
China Southern Airlines Company (600029) currently trades at ¥5.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.58, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Southern Airlines Company generated revenue of 187B CNY at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 10.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.5%. Net debt stands at 65.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.9163 (bear case) to ¥1.58 (bull case); at ¥5.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at -69%, 600029 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.59) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.4500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services.
Full company description
China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services. It also provides online services, including seat and check-in, change/refund, flight status, pre-paid luggage, transfer accommodation, and meal booking. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. China Southern Airlines Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Southern Air Holding Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Southern Airlines Company reported revenue of ¥182B in FY2025 versus ¥102B in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥857M in FY2025.
600029 screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- China's Big Three Airlines Trail Cathay by Nearly 50 Percentage Points
- China Southern Airlines to lease Boeing 777-300 converted freighters
- Boeing (BA) Returns To China With Seven Plane Cargo Order From China Southern
- China Southern strikes landmark deal for Boeing cargo jets
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €9.98 | €15.60 | +56% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.66 | ¥14.20 | +288% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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