China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.84 – ¥8.29 · fair‑value band ¥3.44 – ¥3.84 · the ¥4.93 price screens above the ¥3.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services.
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China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services. It also provides online services, including seat and check-in, change/refund, flight status, pre-paid luggage, transfer accommodation, and meal booking. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. China Southern Airlines Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Southern Air Holding Company Limited.
Stock analysis
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) currently trades at ¥4.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.44, implying the stock looks roughly 43.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥11.59 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥4.93 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.4500, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.44 (bear) to ¥3.84 (bull), the price of ¥4.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 182B CNY in FY2025 versus 102B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was 857M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 89.3B CNY (≈ $13.4B) · P/E ratio 30.7 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1700 · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at −30%, 600029 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥3.44Fair Value ¥3.44Bull ¥3.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1234 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26% vs −19%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 5%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−69% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.36× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)30.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.55× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.3× · Pricier than median
PEG1.09× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 51
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)32· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600029
Frequently asked questions
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.44 versus a price of ¥4.93, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600029?
Our model-based fair value for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is ¥3.44 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.93.
What is the quality score of 600029?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.44 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.44, optimistic scenario ¥3.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.44, about −30% upside versus a price of ¥4.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.44, optimistic scenario ¥3.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 187B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by -10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600029 use?
Our models discount China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A that is -10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies -10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (-10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.88 %: that much free cash flow China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A it is ¥3.44 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥4.93. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 600029 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.93, fair value ¥3.44, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600029?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.44). For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥1.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A at about 89.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.93; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600029?
Our models span a range for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥3.44, base ¥3.44, optimistic ¥3.84 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥4.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600029?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.7 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 600029?
The PEG ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 1.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600029 from its 52-week high?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥4.93, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥8.46 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥4.93, calculated fair value ¥3.44 (−30%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600029 calculated?
We run China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥4.93. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.44, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (¥3.44 to ¥3.84), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 89.3B CNY (≈ $13.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A are ¥0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The dividend yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 6.1% (payout 178%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The net margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is −2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The operating margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Revenue at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) carry?
The net debt of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 65.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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