Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Delta Air Lines Inc stock $101, price $89.24, upside +12.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.97 – $93.17 · fair‑value band $58.70 – $135.51 · the $89.24 price screens below the $100.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery.
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Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Salt Lake City, as well as coastal hub positions in Boston, Los Angeles, New York-LaGuardia, New York-JFK, and Seattle; and international network centered on hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, Bogota, Lima, Mexico City, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Santiago (Chile), Sao Paulo, Seoul-Incheon, and Tokyo.
It also provides aircraft maintenance and engineering support, repair, and overhaul services; and vacation packages. The company operates through a fleet of approximately 1,314 aircraft. Delta Air Lines, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) currently trades at $89.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $100.66, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $143.91 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $89.24 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $54.01, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $58.70 (bear) to $135.51 (bull), the price of $89.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Delta Air Lines Inc reported revenue of $63.4B in FY2025 versus $29.9B in FY2021, a compound +20.7%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding +105.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $58.6B Large · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $5.01 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 13%, DAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$58.70Fair Value $100.66Bull$135.51
Price $89.24 · Upside +12.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$56.83$92.61$143.8579
Growth DCF$57.44$88.47$129.9978
Owner Earnings$76.63$122.63$188.5075
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$56.83$92.61$143.8579
Owner Earnings$76.63$122.63$188.5075
5Y Revenue Exit$61.53$107.56$166.6071
5Y EBITDA Exit$81.76$145.75$221.0074
5Y P/E Exit$80.27$142.93$209.2970
10Y Revenue Exit$56.68$97.15$152.0965
10Y EBITDA Exit$71.32$122.62$192.1167
10Y P/E Exit$70.41$120.74$183.4963
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$51.73$168.85$225.6064
Lynch FV$37.81$54.01$70.2261
PEG = 1.0$37.81$54.01$70.2257
EPV$48.87$58.06$65.8974
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$5.63$10.79$15.7367
DDM Multi-Stage$5.63$9.19$11.4567
Multiples
P/E Multiple$119.82$159.76$199.6963
P/S Multiple$96.99$129.33$161.6658
P/B Multiple$25.82$34.43$43.0455
EV/EBIT$87.33$124.94$162.5565
EV/EBITDA$96.99$137.82$178.6567
EV/Revenue$55.03$89.55$124.0653
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.83$5.13$7.6554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$57.44$88.47$129.9978
Rev-Margin DCF$61.53$107.41$160.7571
Economic Profit
Residual Income$42.62$54.23$86.9774
ROIC Compounder$52.30$68.23$86.9472
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$100.74$143.91$187.0967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $42.6M and none bought.
SaleEdward H BastianChief Executive Officer, Director4× since Jan 15, 2026: 529,740 shares, avg. $80.40$42.6MOct 29, 2026
SaleSteven M SearEVP - Global Sales & Distrib3× since Jan 14, 2026: 110,350 shares, avg. $80.31$8.9MAug 5, 2026
SaleMichael P HuertaDirector3,100 shares at $94.12$291,772Aug 5, 2026
SaleAlain BellemareEVP & Pres. - International5× since Jan 15, 2026: 151,833 shares, avg. $78.51$11.9MAug 4, 2026
SalePeter W CarterPresident3× since Jan 15, 2026: 81,200 shares, avg. $82.95$6.7MAug 4, 2026
SaleDavid G DewaltDirector31,756 shares at $90.85$2.9MAug 3, 2026
SaleAllison C AusbandEVP & Chief People Officer2× since May 21, 2026: 24,710 shares, avg. $77.09$1.9MMay 27, 2026
SaleJohn E LaughterEVP & Chief of Operations2× since Apr 10, 2026: 84,304 shares, avg. $68.77$5.8MApr 14, 2026
SaleGlen W HauensteinPresident3× since Jan 14, 2026: 460,509 shares, avg. $73.24$33.7MFeb 9, 2026
SaleRahul D SamantEVP & Chief Info Officer2× since Jan 14, 2026: 119,531 shares, avg. $69.89$8.4MFeb 5, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.6% vs 3.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−73% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Network scale supports record revenues from broad demand and premium growth, yet limited moat and high debt leave the airline exposed in a competitive sector.
Main risk: Ultra-low-cost carriers such as Frontier Airlines, Allegiant Air and Spirit Airlines could capture more domestic leisure passengers or force Delta to match lower fares on overlapping routes, squeezing yields and margins.
Bull case: Delta could leverage its scale, premium cabins and loyalty programme to retain high-yield customers while using AI-driven pricing and efficiency gains to offset competitive and regulatory pressures.
Bear case: Persistent pressure from ultra-low-cost rivals combined with aircraft supply constraints and rising emissions compliance costs could erode Delta's cost advantages and limit its ability to maintain premium pricing and network scale.
Delta reported record third-quarter revenue on strong broad-based demand and premium cabin growth, yet cut its full-year profit outlook as fuel costs surged. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued. Will the airline keep passing higher costs through rising fares and loyalty revenue, or will the fuel spike keep margins under sustained pressure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside+12.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.9% · Above median
Return on assets6.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Delta Air Lines Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DAL
Frequently asked questions
Is Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $100.66 versus a price of $89.24, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DAL?
Our model-based fair value for Delta Air Lines Inc is $100.66 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $89.24.
What is the quality score of DAL?
Delta Air Lines Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $100.66 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $58.70, optimistic scenario $135.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Delta Air Lines Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $100.66, about +13% upside versus a price of $89.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $58.70, optimistic scenario $135.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
Delta Air Lines Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $71.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Delta Air Lines Inc pay a dividend?
Delta Air Lines Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Delta Air Lines Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DAL use?
Our models discount Delta Air Lines Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Delta Air Lines Inc that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Delta Air Lines Inc grew +30.0 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Delta Air Lines Inc (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.55 %: that much free cash flow Delta Air Lines Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Delta Air Lines Inc it is $100.66 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $89.24. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Delta Air Lines Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DAL trades below its calculated fair value: price $89.24, fair value $100.66, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($89.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($100.66). For Delta Air Lines Inc the two are $11.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Delta Air Lines Inc worth?
The market values Delta Air Lines Inc at about $58.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $89.24; our models calculate a fair value of $100.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DAL?
Our models span a range for Delta Air Lines Inc: cautious scenario $58.70, base $100.66, optimistic $135.51 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $89.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DAL?
Delta Air Lines Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $100.66 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 9.1. Other multiples: PEG 39.3, P/B 2.8, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
What is the PEG ratio of DAL?
The PEG ratio of Delta Air Lines Inc is 39.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Delta Air Lines Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DAL from its 52-week high?
Delta Air Lines Inc trades at $89.24, about 4% below its 52-week high of $93.17 and 62% above the low of $55.06 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $100.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Delta Air Lines Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Delta Air Lines Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $89.24, calculated fair value $100.66 (+13%), Quality Score 49/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DAL calculated?
We run Delta Air Lines Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $100.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Delta Air Lines Inc currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $89.24. Our model-based fair value is $100.66, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Delta Air Lines Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($58.70 to $135.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) come from?
Earnings per share at Delta Air Lines Inc grew +6.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Delta Air Lines Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The market capitalisation of Delta Air Lines Inc is $58.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Delta Air Lines Inc is 0.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
Earnings per share at Delta Air Lines Inc are $5.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The dividend yield of Delta Air Lines Inc is 0.9% (payout 16.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The net margin of Delta Air Lines Inc is 4.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Delta Air Lines Inc is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Delta Air Lines Inc is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
The operating margin of Delta Air Lines Inc is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
Revenue at Delta Air Lines Inc is growing +21.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)?
Earnings per share at Delta Air Lines Inc are growing −47.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) carry?
The net debt of Delta Air Lines Inc is $16.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026