LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $16.3B
LATAM Airlines Group
LTM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $106.79 to $37.38 (−65.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($23.19 to $46.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range $21.42 – $68.29 · fair‑value band $23.19 – $46.72 · the $57.45 price screens above the $37.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) currently trades at $57.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.38, implying the stock looks roughly 34.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, LATAM Airlines Group generated revenue of $15.0B at a net margin of 11.2%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 117.6%. Net debt stands at $5.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.19 (bear case) to $46.72 (bull case); at $57.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -35%, LTM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($112.64) versus Asset-Based ($3.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania.
Full company description
LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania. As of December 31, 2024, the company provides passenger transport services to 160 destinations in 27 countries; and operated 371 fleet of aircraft. The company was formerly known as LAN Airlines S.A. and changed its name to LATAM Airlines Group S.A. in June 2012. LATAM Airlines Group S.A. was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LATAM Airlines Group reported revenue of $14.3B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound +30.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025.
LTM screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- SES Launches Multi-Orbit Satellite Connectivity on LATAM Airbus, Embraer Fleet
- LTM and Cognition Partner to Reduce Cyber Risk in Financial Services with Devin
- Are Investors Undervaluing LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) Right Now?
- Latam Airlines (LTM) Stock Fair Value Falls As Analysts Weigh Sector Upside And Risks
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €9.98 | €15.60 | +56% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.66 | ¥14.20 | +288% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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