Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Paulic Meunerie Sa €1.11, price €1.19, upside -6.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.8340 – €8.96 · fair‑value band €0.6800 – €1.39 · the €1.19 price screens above the €1.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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PAULIC Meunerie SA produces and sells wheat and buckwheat flour for professionals in the bakery, creperie, and food industries in France and internationally. It offers product technology, Wheat and flour analysis, and communication services. The company was formerly known as Minoterie PAULIC. The company was founded in 1957 and is based in Pontivy, France.
Stock analysis
Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU) currently trades at €1.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.11, implying the stock looks roughly 7.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €2.14 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the €1.19 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.4400, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €0.6800 (bear) to €1.39 (bull), the price of €1.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Paulic Meunerie Sa reported revenue of €18.3M in FY2025 versus €11.3M in FY2021, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was €245K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €7.0M · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) €0.0600 · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% · Operating margin 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −7%, ALPAU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.6800Fair Value €1.11Bull €1.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0441 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.9% (2020) → 3.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 668 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paulic Meunerie Sa Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALPAU
Frequently asked questions
Is Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.11 versus a price of €1.19, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALPAU?
Our model-based fair value for Paulic Meunerie Sa is €1.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.19.
What is the quality score of ALPAU?
Paulic Meunerie Sa has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.6800, optimistic scenario €1.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paulic Meunerie Sa stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.11, about −7% upside versus a price of €1.19 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €0.6800, optimistic scenario €1.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
Paulic Meunerie Sa reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €18.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paulic Meunerie Sa would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALPAU use?
Our models discount Paulic Meunerie Sa at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paulic Meunerie Sa that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paulic Meunerie Sa grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paulic Meunerie Sa (+5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.62 %: that much free cash flow Paulic Meunerie Sa produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paulic Meunerie Sa it is €1.11 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €1.19. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paulic Meunerie Sa stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALPAU trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.19, fair value €1.11, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALPAU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.11). For Paulic Meunerie Sa the two are €0.0800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paulic Meunerie Sa worth?
The market values Paulic Meunerie Sa at about €7.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €1.19; our models calculate a fair value of €1.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALPAU?
Our models span a range for Paulic Meunerie Sa: cautious scenario €0.6800, base €1.11, optimistic €1.39 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €1.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALPAU?
Paulic Meunerie Sa trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paulic Meunerie Sa (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALPAU from its 52-week high?
Paulic Meunerie Sa trades at €1.19, about 30% below its 52-week high of €1.70 and 19% above the low of €1.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paulic Meunerie Sa?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paulic Meunerie Sa stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €1.19, calculated fair value €1.11 (−7%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALPAU calculated?
We run Paulic Meunerie Sa through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Paulic Meunerie Sa itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €1.19. Our model-based fair value is €1.11, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paulic Meunerie Sa right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€0.6800 to €1.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Paulic Meunerie Sa
How large is the market capitalisation of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
The market capitalisation of Paulic Meunerie Sa is €7.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paulic Meunerie Sa is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
Earnings per share at Paulic Meunerie Sa are €0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
The net margin of Paulic Meunerie Sa is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paulic Meunerie Sa is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paulic Meunerie Sa is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
The operating margin of Paulic Meunerie Sa is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU)?
Revenue at Paulic Meunerie Sa is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Paulic Meunerie Sa (ALPAU) carry?
The net debt of Paulic Meunerie Sa is €5.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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