Poulaillon SA (ALPOU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 21, 2026: fair value of Poulaillon SA €18.06, price €9.00, upside +100.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Poulaillon SA for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.77 – €9.05 · fair‑value band €12.55 – €26.68 · the €9.00 price screens below the €18.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Poulaillon in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Poulaillon is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Poulaillon SA, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells fresh and frozen bakery and pastry products in France. The company offers breads, pastries, sandwiches, moricettes, sweets, desserts, cakes, etc. It also provides catering services. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Wittelsheim, France.
Stock analysis
Poulaillon SA (ALPOU) currently trades at €9.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €18.06, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €16.23 per share, and 17 of the 25 models we run sit above the €9.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.45, and 8 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €12.55 (bear) to €26.68 (bull), the price of €9.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Poulaillon SA reported revenue of €119M in FY2025 versus €67.1M in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was €4.9M in FY2025, compounding +46.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €46.0M · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) €0.9500 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 101%, ALPOU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €12.55Fair Value €18.06Bull €26.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.9500 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+30.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29.6% vs 18.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+100.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Poulaillon SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALPOU
Frequently asked questions
Is Poulaillon SA (ALPOU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €18.06 versus the last price from Jul 21, 2026 of €9.00, about +101% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALPOU?
Our model-based fair value for Poulaillon SA is €18.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 21, 2026): €9.00.
What is the quality score of ALPOU?
Poulaillon SA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €18.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.55, optimistic scenario €26.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Poulaillon SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €18.06, about +101% upside versus the last price from Jul 21, 2026 of €9.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €12.55, optimistic scenario €26.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
Poulaillon SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €119M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Poulaillon SA pay a dividend?
Poulaillon SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Poulaillon SA would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALPOU use?
Our models discount Poulaillon SA at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Poulaillon SA that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Poulaillon SA (ALPOU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Poulaillon SA grew +12.3 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Poulaillon SA (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.01 %: that much free cash flow Poulaillon SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Poulaillon SA it is €18.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €9.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Poulaillon SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALPOU trades below its calculated fair value: price €9.00, fair value €18.06, a gap of about +101% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALPOU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€18.06). For Poulaillon SA the two are €9.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Poulaillon SA worth?
The market values Poulaillon SA at about €46.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €9.00; our models calculate a fair value of €18.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALPOU?
Our models span a range for Poulaillon SA: cautious scenario €12.55, base €18.06, optimistic €26.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €9.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALPOU?
Poulaillon SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €18.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Poulaillon SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALPOU from its 52-week high?
Poulaillon SA trades at €9.00, about 1% below its 52-week high of €9.05 and 73% above the low of €5.19 (as of Jul 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €18.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Poulaillon SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Poulaillon SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €9.00, calculated fair value €18.06 (+101%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALPOU calculated?
We run Poulaillon SA through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €18.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Poulaillon SA currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 21, 2026 and stands at €9.00. Our model-based fair value is €18.06, about +101% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Poulaillon SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€12.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€12.55 to €26.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU) come from?
Earnings per share at Poulaillon SA grew +16.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Poulaillon SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The market capitalisation of Poulaillon SA is €46.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Poulaillon SA is 0.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
Earnings per share at Poulaillon SA are €0.9500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The dividend yield of Poulaillon SA is 0.9% (payout 8.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The net margin of Poulaillon SA is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Poulaillon SA is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Poulaillon SA is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
The operating margin of Poulaillon SA is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
Revenue at Poulaillon SA is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Poulaillon SA (ALPOU)?
Earnings per share at Poulaillon SA are growing +11.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Poulaillon SA (ALPOU) carry?
The net debt of Poulaillon SA is €16.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Poulaillon SA in the live analysis
One click puts Poulaillon SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
