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Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A €1.65, price €14.80, upside -88.9%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Communication Services · PT

SD Thin data Jul 14, 2026

Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A

ALSMB · LS

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €1.65 · Strongly overvalued (−88.9%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +17.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/9)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€14.80 €2.33 Fair Value €1.65 Oct 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

48‑month range €2.33 – €14.80 · fair‑value band €1.23 – €2.47 · the €14.80 price screens above the €1.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Company profile

Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A. operates as a sports marketing company. The company offers social media management services, including community management, localized campaigns, growth services, creative studio, data and insights, digital platform, and translation and subtitling; creative studio; and activation campaigns.

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Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A. operates as a sports marketing company. The company offers social media management services, including community management, localized campaigns, growth services, creative studio, data and insights, digital platform, and translation and subtitling; creative studio; and activation campaigns. It also provides Sports Translate, provides translators, specialized in sports, to manage any type of translation on a single platform for sports industry; and Talentisi, a messaging system to connect you to assigned talents and space for document storage. Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A. was founded in 2018 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.

Stock analysis

Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB) currently trades at €14.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.65, 88.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 79/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: €1.23 (bear) to €2.47 (bull), the price of €14.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A reported revenue of €6.2M in FY2025 versus €3.0M in FY2021, a compound +19.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€251K in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €148M · P/S ratio 19.9 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0300 · Net margin −4.0% · Return on equity −0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% · Operating margin 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) €7.4M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −89%, ALSMB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €1.23 Fair Value €1.65 Bull €2.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) €1.23 €1.65 €2.47 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.23 €1.65 €2.47 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 15
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.3% (2021) → −2.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ALSMB screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 182 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −88.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −1.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.76× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 22.39× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 13
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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AppLovin Corporation APP $290.43 $319.47 +10%
Publicis Groupe S.A PUB €94.24 €145.63 +55%
Omnicom Group OMC $73.63 $114.19 +55%
Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 ¥4.66 ¥5.71 +23%
JCDecaux SE DEC €24.96 €20.99 −16%
The Trade Desk, Inc TTD $12.05 $43.84 +264%
WPP plc WPP $25.99 $39.72 +53%
Leo Group 002131 ¥4.31 ¥0.6000 −86%
Magnite, Inc MGNI $25.67 $28.24 +10%
Mobvista Inc 1860 HK$13.51 HK$12.22 −10%

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Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A · Fair Value
€1.65 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALSMB

Frequently asked questions

Is Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.65 versus a price of €14.80, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALSMB?
Our model-based fair value for Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is €1.65 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €14.80.
What is the quality score of ALSMB?
Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.65 (as of Jul 14, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.23, optimistic scenario €2.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.65, about −89% upside versus a price of €14.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.23, optimistic scenario €2.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.4M (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A it is €1.65 per share (as of Jul 14, 2026), against a price of €14.80. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jul 14, 2026, ALSMB trades above its calculated fair value: price €14.80, fair value €1.65, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALSMB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€14.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.65). For Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A the two are €13.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A worth?
The market values Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A at about €148M (market capitalisation, as of Jul 14, 2026). Per share that is €14.80; our models calculate a fair value of €1.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALSMB?
Our models span a range for Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A: cautious scenario €1.23, base €1.65, optimistic €2.47 per share (as of Jul 14, 2026, price €14.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (as of Jul 14, 2026): return on equity −0.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALSMB from its 52-week high?
Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A trades at €14.80, at its 52-week high of €14.80 and 6% above the low of €14.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jul 14, 2026: price €14.80, calculated fair value €1.65 (−89%), Quality Score 45/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALSMB calculated?
We run Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €14.80. Our model-based fair value is €1.65, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€1.23 to €2.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
The market capitalisation of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is €148M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is 19.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
Earnings per share at Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A are €−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
The net margin of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is −4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB)?
The operating margin of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB) generate?
The free cash flow of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is −€256K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A (ALSMB) carry?
The net debt of Samba Digital, SGPS, S.A is €182K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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