AppLovin Corporation (APP) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $170B
AppLovin Corporation
APP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −36.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($135.16 to $473.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.30 – $733.60 · fair‑value band $135.16 – $473.65 · the $335.67 price screens above the $181.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
AppLovin Corporation (APP) currently trades at $335.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $181.37, implying the stock looks roughly 46.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AppLovin Corporation generated revenue of $6.2B at a net margin of 64.3%. Revenue grew 59.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 266.4%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $135.16 (bear case) to $473.65 (bull case); at $335.67, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -46%, APP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($491.78) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 86 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps.
Full company description
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps. The company offers Axon Ads Manager, a suite of marketing solutions that enables developers to automate, optimize, and manage marketing efforts; MAX, an in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction; Adjust, a measurement and analytics marketing platform; and Wurl, a connected TV platform, which distributes streaming video for content companies, provides advertising and publishing solutions. It serves individuals, small and independent businesses, enterprises, advertisers and advertising networks, mobile app publishers, and indie studio developers. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AppLovin Corporation reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding +211.4%/yr from FY2021.
APP screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Publicis Groupe S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AppLovin Grows 53% and Beats on Profit. Here’s Why We’re Bullish.
- AppLovin Corp (APP) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic Expansion ...
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 201 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €87.16 | €146.36 | +68% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $80.75 | $99.84 | +24% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.00 | ¥4.08 | -18% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $19.37 | $20.76 | +7% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.81 | ¥1.50 | -89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €21.28 | €20.99 | -1% |
| WPP plc WPP | $18.13 | $18.56 | +2% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥28.85 | ¥5.62 | -81% |
| Magnite, Inc MGNI | $19.91 | $17.17 | -14% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.15 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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