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The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Trade Desk, Inc €27.89, price €10.53, upside +164.9%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
The Trade Desk, Inc
TT8 · XETRAClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value €27.89 · Strongly undervalued (+164.9%)
✓Quality 74/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +22.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.6% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 57/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.53 – €132.48 · fair‑value band €19.03 – €36.26 · the €10.53 price screens below the €27.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally.
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The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Stock analysis
The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8) currently trades at €10.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €27.89, implying the stock looks roughly 62.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €31.44 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the €10.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.46, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €19.03 (bear) to €36.26 (bull), the price of €10.53 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The Trade Desk, Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $443M in FY2025, compounding +33.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €8.0B · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 3.38 · EPS (TTM) €0.7700 · Net margin 15.3% · Return on equity 16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 165%, TT8 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €19.03
Fair Value €27.89
Bull €36.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5822 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€27.28
€41.26
€84.85
71
Growth DCF
€25.70
€45.11
€83.09
69
EPV
€10.17
€11.56
€12.76
68
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€27.28
€41.26
€84.85
71
Owner Earnings
€12.16
€25.28
€51.82
65
5Y Revenue Exit
€14.50
€22.23
€37.63
65
5Y EBITDA Exit
€18.93
€31.44
€55.10
67
5Y P/E Exit
€19.09
€37.10
€60.65
63
10Y Revenue Exit
€17.94
€31.41
€41.09
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
€21.38
€40.27
€74.25
60
10Y P/E Exit
€21.49
€40.59
€73.21
56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€6.27
€43.73
€61.37
60
Lynch FV
€14.87
€21.25
€27.62
58
PEG = 1.0
€14.87
€21.25
€27.62
55
EPV
€10.17
€11.56
€12.76
68
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€14.52
€19.37
€24.21
63
P/S Multiple
€9.04
€12.05
€15.06
58
P/B Multiple
€11.76
€15.68
€19.60
55
EV/EBIT
€17.00
€22.21
€27.42
63
EV/EBITDA
€15.67
€20.44
€25.21
64
EV/Revenue
€8.96
€12.21
€15.47
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€2.58
€3.46
€5.17
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€25.70
€45.11
€83.09
69
Rev-Margin DCF
€14.50
€25.25
€41.84
65
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€5.86
€7.75
€12.93
65
ROIC Compounder
€12.50
€17.51
€24.38
66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€19.52
€27.89
€36.26
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
74/100
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Profitability
56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
1
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
97
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+49.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+49.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 20%
2025 sits 155% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.4% a year for the price and +6.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $290.43 | $319.47 | +10% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €94.24 | €145.63 | +55% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $73.63 | $114.19 | +55% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥4.66 | ¥5.71 | +23% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €24.96 | €20.99 | −16% |
| WPP plc WPP | $25.99 | $39.72 | +53% |
| Leo Group 002131 | ¥4.31 | ¥0.6000 | −86% |
| Magnite, Inc MGNI | $25.67 | $28.24 | +10% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$13.51 | HK$12.22 | −10% |
| Ströer SE SAX | €35.96 | €41.69 | +16% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €27.89 versus a price of €10.53, about +165% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TT8?
Our model-based fair value for The Trade Desk, Inc is €27.89 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.53.
What is the quality score of TT8?
The Trade Desk, Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €27.89 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €19.03, optimistic scenario €36.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Trade Desk, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €27.89, about +165% upside versus a price of €10.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €19.03, optimistic scenario €36.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The Trade Desk, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Trade Desk, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +24.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TT8 use?
Our models discount The Trade Desk, Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Trade Desk, Inc that is -11.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at The Trade Desk, Inc grew +24.7 % a year. The price currently implies -11.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Trade Desk, Inc (-11.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.88 %: that much free cash flow The Trade Desk, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Trade Desk, Inc it is €27.89 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €10.53. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Trade Desk, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TT8 trades below its calculated fair value: price €10.53, fair value €27.89, a gap of about +165% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TT8?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€27.89). For The Trade Desk, Inc the two are €17.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Trade Desk, Inc worth?
The market values The Trade Desk, Inc at about €8.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €10.53; our models calculate a fair value of €27.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TT8?
Our models span a range for The Trade Desk, Inc: cautious scenario €19.03, base €27.89, optimistic €36.26 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €10.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is TT8 from its 52-week high?
The Trade Desk, Inc trades at €10.53, about 78% below its 52-week high of €46.90 and at the low of €10.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €27.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Trade Desk, Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Trade Desk, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €10.53, calculated fair value €27.89 (+165%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TT8 calculated?
We run The Trade Desk, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €27.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Trade Desk, Inc currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €10.53. Our model-based fair value is €27.89, about +165% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Trade Desk, Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€19.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (€19.03 to €36.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of The Trade Desk, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The market capitalisation of The Trade Desk, Inc is €8.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of The Trade Desk, Inc is 22.1 (as of Jul 16, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Trade Desk, Inc is 3.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
Earnings per share at The Trade Desk, Inc are €0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The net margin of The Trade Desk, Inc is 15.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Trade Desk, Inc is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Trade Desk, Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
The operating margin of The Trade Desk, Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
Revenue at The Trade Desk, Inc is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Trade Desk, Inc (TT8)?
Earnings per share at The Trade Desk, Inc are growing −20.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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