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AMA Group (AMGRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AMA Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
AMA Group
AMGRF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $0.8400 · Strongly undervalued (+158%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0005 – $4.35 · fair‑value band $0.4600 – $0.8400 · the $0.3256 price screens below the $0.8400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
AMA Group Limited engages in the development and operation of collision repair business in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through five segments: AMA Collision, Capital SMART, Wales, Specialist Businesses, and ACM Parts.
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AMA Group Limited engages in the development and operation of collision repair business in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through five segments: AMA Collision, Capital SMART, Wales, Specialist Businesses, and ACM Parts. It offers rapid and complex repairs of cars; mechanical repair and ADAS calibration services; reclaimed and aftermarket parts; and collision repair consumables for the mechanical and collision repair industries. The company also operates specialized facilities for all commercial vehicle repairs, including light commercial, prime movers, B-doubles, buses, and earthmoving equipment, as well as sites for servicing prestige vehicle marques. The company was formerly known as Allomak Limited and changed its name to AMA Group Limited in December 2009. AMA Group Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
AMA Group (AMGRF) currently trades at $0.3256, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8400, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.43 per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the $0.3256 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.2200, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.4600 (bear) to $0.8400 (bull), the price of $0.3256 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AMA Group reported revenue of A$1.0B in FY2025 versus A$917M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $216M · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin −0.7% · Return on equity −1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1% · Operating margin 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 158%, AMGRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4600
Fair Value $0.8400
Bull $0.8400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.9800
$1.52
$2.83
77
Growth DCF
$0.9300
$1.60
$2.65
76
EPV
$0.4300
$0.4800
$0.5300
74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.9800
$1.52
$2.83
77
Owner Earnings
$0.2300
$0.4700
$0.8800
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.7600
$1.34
$2.33
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.28
$2.49
$4.44
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.8100
$1.43
$2.24
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.14
$2.24
$4.19
65
Earnings-Based
EPV
$0.4300
$0.4800
$0.5300
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.1400
$0.2300
$0.3000
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.1400
$0.2200
$0.2500
67
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$0.9400
$1.26
$1.58
66
EV/EBITDA
$1.55
$2.07
$2.60
67
EV/Revenue
$0.6200
$0.9000
$1.18
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2300
$0.3100
$0.4600
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.9300
$1.60
$2.65
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.7600
$1.38
$2.29
70
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$0.4300
$0.5100
$0.6100
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
40/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Profitability
43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
39/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.7% (2020) → 3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.6%
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Compare AMA Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 96 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $69.16 | $17.51 | −75% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $215.91 | $217.41 | +1% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €170.30 | €105.40 | −38% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 530.00 TWD | 570.48 TWD | +8% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $61.32 | $27.16 | −56% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $358.02 | $491.16 | +37% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $203.67 | $329.77 | +62% |
| AUTO1 Group AG1 | €20.14 | €2.93 | −85% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $48.31 | $87.70 | +82% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $30.55 | $24.55 | −20% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is AMA Group (AMGRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8400 versus a price of $0.3256, about +158% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AMGRF?
Our model-based fair value for AMA Group is $0.8400 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3256.
What is the quality score of AMGRF?
AMA Group has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AMA Group (AMGRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8400 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4600, optimistic scenario $0.8400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AMA Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8400, about +158% upside versus a price of $0.3256 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.4600, optimistic scenario $0.8400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
AMA Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does AMA Group pay a dividend?
AMA Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into AMA Group (AMGRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AMA Group would have to grow free cash flow by -7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMGRF use?
Our models discount AMA Group at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AMA Group that is -7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AMA Group (AMGRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AMA Group grew +4.2 % a year. The price currently implies -7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AMA Group (AMGRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AMA Group (-7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.71 %: that much free cash flow AMA Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AMA Group it is $0.8400 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.3256. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AMA Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AMGRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3256, fair value $0.8400, a gap of about +158% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMGRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3256); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8400). For AMA Group the two are $0.5144 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AMA Group worth?
The market values AMA Group at about $216M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.3256; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMGRF?
Our models span a range for AMA Group: cautious scenario $0.4600, base $0.8400, optimistic $0.8400 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.3256). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AMA Group (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −1.2%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMGRF from its 52-week high?
AMA Group trades at $0.3256, about 52% below its 52-week high of $0.6800 and 24,946% above the low of $0.0013 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AMA Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AMA Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.3256, calculated fair value $0.8400 (+158%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMGRF calculated?
We run AMA Group through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. AMA Group currently trades 158 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with AMA Group right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.4600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4600 to $0.8400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AMA Group
How large is the market capitalisation of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
The market capitalisation of AMA Group is $216M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AMA Group is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
Earnings per share at AMA Group are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
The dividend yield of AMA Group is 4.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
The net margin of AMA Group is −0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AMA Group is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AMA Group is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AMA Group (AMGRF)?
The operating margin of AMA Group is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AMA Group (AMGRF)?
Revenue at AMA Group is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does AMA Group (AMGRF) carry?
The net debt of AMA Group is $323M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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