CarMax Inc (KMX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CarMax Inc stock $32.38, price $51.48, that is 37.1% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.88 – $154.85 · fair‑value band $21.95 – $47.91 · the $51.48 price screens above the $32.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance.
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The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; used vehicle auctions; extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale; and reconditioning and vehicle repair services.
The CarMax Auto Finance segment provides financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum and arrangements with various financial institutions. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
CarMax Inc (KMX) currently trades at $51.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.38, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $66.76 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the $51.48 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.53, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $21.95 (bear) to $47.91 (bull), the price of $51.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CarMax Inc reported revenue of $25.9B in FY2026 versus $31.9B in FY2022, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $247M in FY2026, compounding −31.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $7.6B Mid · P/E ratio 24.4 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) $2.11 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −37%, KMX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.95Fair Value $32.38Bull$47.91
Price $51.48 · Downside -37.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.3M, most recently on Jun 25, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyMarcella ShinderDirector574 shares at $52.01$29,854Jun 25, 2026
BuySona ChawlaDirector2,000 shares at $53.39$106,780Jun 25, 2026
BuyMark F ONeilDirector9,600 shares at $52.36$502,656Jun 24, 2026
BuyKeith BarrPresident and CEO, Director9,400 shares at $53.01$498,294Jun 22, 2026
BuyPeter J BensenDirector2,500 shares at $52.20$130,500Jun 22, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20.7% vs −5.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → −2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.9% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Modest differentiation from organization capital supports higher volumes after restructuring, yet low margins and ROE indicate limited pricing power with sparse evidence overall.
Main risk: AI-driven pricing and reconditioning tools could replicate CarMax's data advantage, allowing rivals to match or undercut its offers and compress retail margins.
Bull case: By combining its physical stores with AI-enhanced digital tools and hybrid processes, CarMax could deliver a differentiated experience that retains customers and supports stable or improving unit economics.
Bear case: If digital rivals scale faster with superior efficiency, CarMax could lose meaningful market share and face sustained pressure on retail margins from ongoing price competition.
CarMax has delivered higher unit volumes after its restructuring and new leadership focused on competitive pricing and operational changes. Vehicle margins have narrowed in the process while finance income and protection plan profits have provided some offset. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the November strategic update reveal whether these trade-offs support durable growth or expose limits in the core retail model?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−37.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.7% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.26× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)6.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA22.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.45× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)89· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 74
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CarMax Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KMX
Frequently asked questions
Is CarMax Inc (KMX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.38 versus a price of $51.48, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KMX?
Our model-based fair value for CarMax Inc is $32.38 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.48.
What is the quality score of KMX?
CarMax Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CarMax Inc (KMX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.38 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.95, optimistic scenario $47.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CarMax Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.38, about 37% lower versus a price of $51.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.95, optimistic scenario $47.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
CarMax Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into CarMax Inc (KMX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CarMax Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KMX use?
Our models discount CarMax Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CarMax Inc that is +11.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CarMax Inc (KMX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CarMax Inc grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CarMax Inc (KMX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CarMax Inc (+11.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.36 %: that much free cash flow CarMax Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CarMax Inc it is $32.38 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $51.48. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is CarMax Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, KMX trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.48, fair value $32.38, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KMX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.38). For CarMax Inc the two are $19.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CarMax Inc worth?
The market values CarMax Inc at about $7.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $51.48; our models calculate a fair value of $32.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KMX?
Our models span a range for CarMax Inc: cautious scenario $21.95, base $32.38, optimistic $47.91 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $51.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KMX?
CarMax Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.38 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 19.6 (reported for FY2026: 30.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 18.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 22.0.
What is the PEG ratio of KMX?
The PEG ratio of CarMax Inc is 0.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
Balance-sheet figures for CarMax Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 2.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KMX from its 52-week high?
CarMax Inc trades at $51.48, about 20% below its 52-week high of $64.22 and 67% above the low of $30.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CarMax Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, Rush Enterprises, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CarMax Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $51.48, calculated fair value $32.38 (−37%), Quality Score 53/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KMX calculated?
We run CarMax Inc through 16 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. CarMax Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $51.48. Our model-based fair value is $32.38, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CarMax Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($47.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($21.95 to $47.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CarMax Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
The market capitalisation of CarMax Inc is $7.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CarMax Inc is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
Earnings per share at CarMax Inc are $2.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
The net margin of CarMax Inc is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CarMax Inc is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CarMax Inc is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
The operating margin of CarMax Inc is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CarMax Inc (KMX)?
Revenue at CarMax Inc is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CarMax Inc (KMX)?
Earnings per share at CarMax Inc are growing +81.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CarMax Inc (KMX) carry?
The net debt of CarMax Inc is $2.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026