Carvana Co (CVNA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $72.2B
Carvana Co
CVNA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($10.50 to $25.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7440 – $95.69 · fair‑value band $10.50 – $25.80 · the $68.34 price screens above the $20.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Carvana Co (CVNA) currently trades at $68.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.89, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Carvana Co generated revenue of $22.5B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 52.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 60.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.50 (bear case) to $25.80 (bull case); at $68.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -69%, CVNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($98.25) versus Asset-Based ($2.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services.
Full company description
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. The company also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carvana Co reported revenue of $20.3B in FY2025 versus $12.8B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025.
CVNA screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Penske Automotive Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carvana (CVNA) Reports Record Profit But Cools Expectations With Cautious Outlook
- CVNA Stock Is Dropping After a Record Quarter. Here's Why.
- Carvana Is Down 30% in 2026 While CarMax Is Up 50%. Should Investors Sell One and Buy the Other?
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
| Asbury Automotive Group ABG | $211.97 | $449.22 | +112% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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