Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lithia Motors Inc stock $517, price $309, upside +67.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
The stock costs 40% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $517.15 · Strongly undervalued
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(8/13)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Costs just 9 times its yearly profit.
Quality 44/100
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +23.4 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 1.9% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
0.8% dividend yield · Token dividend
Insiders sold $376,898 (6M)
Narrow moat38/100 · thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Analyst target cuts and softer sector sentiment weighing on the shares ahead of results🚩Carvana and CarMax pressure used-vehicle margins🚩OEM direct or agency models bypass dealers🚩EV adoption cuts aftersales revenue
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $178.07 – $427.48 · fair‑value band $269.50 – $792.27 · the $308.77 price screens below the $517.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Vehicle Operations and Financing Operations.
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It offers a range of products and services fulfilling the entire vehicle ownership lifecycle, including new and used vehicles, financing and insurance products, and aftersales automotive repair and maintenance services.
The company provides its products and services through a network of physical locations, e-commerce platforms, captive finance solutions, fleet management offerings, and other synergistic adjacencies. Lithia Motors, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Medford, Oregon.
Stock analysis
Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) currently trades at $308.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $517.15, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $945.78 per share, and 16 of the 23 models we run sit above the $308.77 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $194.88, and 7 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $269.50 (bear) to $792.27 (bull), the price of $308.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lithia Motors Inc reported revenue of $37.6B in FY2025 versus $22.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was $820M in FY2025, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.9B Mid · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) $34.47 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 67%, LAD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$269.50Fair Value $517.15Bull$792.27
Price $308.77 · Upside +67.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($27.53 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $376,898 and none bought.
SaleCongdon Stacy LoretzDirector4× since Dec 12, 2025: 300 shares, avg. $326.27$97,880Sep 11, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavid StorkChief Administrative Officer320 shares at $373.49$119,517Sep 8, 2026
SaleShauna McIntyreDirector2× since May 11, 2026: 410 shares, avg. $299.07$122,619Jun 10, 2026
SaleRichard J Bailey JrDirector297 shares at $280.58$83,332May 26, 2026
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.6% vs 16.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate organizational scale offers a base while weak innovation and high leverage provide thin evidence of a durable competitive moat.
Main risk: Online platforms such as Carvana and CarMax could use AI-driven pricing tools to capture customers and force lower margins on Lithia's used-vehicle sales.
Bull case: Lithia could leverage its scale, Driveway platform and AI tools in service to retain customers and expand higher-margin aftersales despite competitive pressure from digital rivals.
Bear case: If digital platforms and OEM direct models gain share while EV service needs decline, Lithia's vehicle sales and aftersales volumes could shrink materially over time.
Lithia Motors is expanding aftersales and executing share repurchases while new vehicle margins remain under pressure from affordability concerns. Recent analyst target cuts and softer sector sentiment have weighed on the shares ahead of next week's results. Will the shift toward higher-margin services and capital returns sustain earnings power, or will demand weakness continue to dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+67.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.05× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $517.15 versus a price of $308.77, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LAD?
Our model-based fair value for Lithia Motors Inc is $517.15 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $308.77.
What is the quality score of LAD?
Lithia Motors Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $517.15 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $269.50, optimistic scenario $792.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lithia Motors Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $517.15, about +67% upside versus a price of $308.77 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $269.50, optimistic scenario $792.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
Lithia Motors Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $37.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Lithia Motors Inc pay a dividend?
Lithia Motors Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lithia Motors Inc pays a dividend of $2.37 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 7, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2010. The payout ratio is 6.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.11 times. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.8% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.8% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lithia Motors Inc it is $517.15 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $308.77. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lithia Motors Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, LAD trades below its calculated fair value: price $308.77, fair value $517.15, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LAD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($308.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($517.15). For Lithia Motors Inc the two are $208.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lithia Motors Inc worth?
The market values Lithia Motors Inc at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $308.77; our models calculate a fair value of $517.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LAD?
Our models span a range for Lithia Motors Inc: cautious scenario $269.50, base $517.15, optimistic $792.27 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $308.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LAD?
Lithia Motors Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $517.15 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 9.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
What is the PEG ratio of LAD?
The PEG ratio of Lithia Motors Inc is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lithia Motors Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 1.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LAD from its 52-week high?
Lithia Motors Inc trades at $308.77, about 28% below its 52-week high of $427.48 and 27% above the low of $242.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $517.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lithia Motors Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lithia Motors Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $308.77, calculated fair value $517.15 (+67%), Quality Score 44/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LAD calculated?
We run Lithia Motors Inc through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $517.15 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Lithia Motors Inc currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $308.77. Our model-based fair value is $517.15, about +67% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lithia Motors Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($269.50 to $792.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) come from?
Earnings per share at Lithia Motors Inc grew +19.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.7 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lithia Motors Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
The market capitalisation of Lithia Motors Inc is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lithia Motors Inc is 0.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
Earnings per share at Lithia Motors Inc are $34.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
The dividend yield of Lithia Motors Inc is 0.8% (payout 6.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
The net margin of Lithia Motors Inc is 1.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lithia Motors Inc is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lithia Motors Inc is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
The operating margin of Lithia Motors Inc is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
Revenue at Lithia Motors Inc is growing +2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)?
Earnings per share at Lithia Motors Inc are growing +16.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) generate?
The free cash flow of Lithia Motors Inc is $5.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) carry?
The net debt of Lithia Motors Inc is $14.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026