Lithia Motors, Inc (LAD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $7.7B
Lithia Motors, Inc
LAD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +24.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 63% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($261.55 to $763.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $178.07 – $427.48 · fair‑value band $261.55 – $763.69 · the $375.63 price screens below the $610.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Lithia Motors, Inc (LAD) currently trades at $375.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $610.95, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lithia Motors, Inc generated revenue of $37.7B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. Net debt stands at $14.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $261.55 (bear case) to $763.69 (bull case); at $375.63, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 63%, LAD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($911.66) versus Dividend Discount ($36.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Vehicle Operations and Financing Operations.
Full company description
Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Vehicle Operations and Financing Operations. It offers a range of products and services fulfilling the entire vehicle ownership lifecycle, including new and used vehicles, financing and insurance products, and aftersales automotive repair and maintenance services. The company provides its products and services through a network of physical locations, e-commerce platforms, captive finance solutions, fleet management offerings, and other synergistic adjacencies. Lithia Motors, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Medford, Oregon.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lithia Motors, Inc reported revenue of $37.6B in FY2025 versus $22.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was $820M in FY2025, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- LAD Q2 Earnings Beat on Used Margins and Financing Growth
- Lithia Motors (LAD) Could Be 15% Above Fair Value After Earnings Beat
- Why Lithia Stock Surged Today
- Lithia Motors (LAD) Stock Looks Near Fair Value While Earnings Look Cheap
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
| Asbury Automotive Group ABG | $211.97 | $449.22 | +112% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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