Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Hotai Motor Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 453.67 TWD – 862.59 TWD · fair‑value band 356.25 TWD – 730.27 TWD · the 523.00 TWD price screens above the 484.91 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
Hotai Motor Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, exports and imports, trades, and sells vehicles, automobile air conditioners, and related parts in Taiwan and Mainland China.
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Hotai Motor Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, exports and imports, trades, and sells vehicles, automobile air conditioners, and related parts in Taiwan and Mainland China. It is also involved in the installment sales and vehicle leasing, used vehicles selling, property and casualty insurance, trading of vehicle products/accessories, solar power, energy storage, and vehicle repairing activities, electronic parts and components manufacturing, as well as property management business. In addition, the company provides e-commerce platform services, decision making, capital using and financial management, information, taxi, employee training, consulting, factoring, freight forwarding, transportation and storage, and other services; and designs and produces advertisement. It provides products under the TOYOTA, LEXUS, and HINO brands. Hotai Motor Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207) currently trades at 523.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 484.91 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 7.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 803.00 TWD per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the 523.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 103.62 TWD, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 356.25 TWD (bear) to 730.27 TWD (bull), the price of 523.00 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hotai Motor Co Ltd reported revenue of 278B TWD in FY2025 versus 228B TWD in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 18.9B TWD in FY2025, compounding +3.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 346B TWD (≈ $10.9B) · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) 33.88 TWD · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 20.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −7%, 2207 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 356.25 TWDFair Value 484.91 TWDBull 730.27 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (10.06 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−12% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hotai Motor Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2207
Frequently asked questions
Is Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 484.91 TWD versus a price of 523.00 TWD, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2207?
Our model-based fair value for Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 484.91 TWD (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 523.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2207?
Hotai Motor Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 484.91 TWD (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 356.25 TWD, optimistic scenario 730.27 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hotai Motor Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 484.91 TWD, about −7% upside versus a price of 523.00 TWD (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 356.25 TWD, optimistic scenario 730.27 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
Hotai Motor Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 280B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does Hotai Motor Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hotai Motor Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hotai Motor Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.7 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2207 use?
Our models discount Hotai Motor Co Ltd at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hotai Motor Co Ltd that is +12.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hotai Motor Co Ltd grew +3.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hotai Motor Co Ltd (+12.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.66 %: that much free cash flow Hotai Motor Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hotai Motor Co Ltd it is 484.91 TWD per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of 523.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hotai Motor Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, 2207 trades above its calculated fair value: price 523.00 TWD, fair value 484.91 TWD, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2207?
No. The price is what the market pays today (523.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (484.91 TWD). For Hotai Motor Co Ltd the two are 38.09 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hotai Motor Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hotai Motor Co Ltd at about 346B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is 523.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 484.91 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2207?
Our models span a range for Hotai Motor Co Ltd: cautious scenario 356.25 TWD, base 484.91 TWD, optimistic 730.27 TWD per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price 523.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2207?
Hotai Motor Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 484.91 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 3.1, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 2207?
The PEG ratio of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 19, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hotai Motor Co Ltd (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 20.7%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2207 from its 52-week high?
Hotai Motor Co Ltd trades at 523.00 TWD, about 17% below its 52-week high of 633.00 TWD and 15% above the low of 456.00 TWD (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 484.91 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hotai Motor Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, CarMax, Inc, Lithia Motors, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hotai Motor Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price 523.00 TWD, calculated fair value 484.91 TWD (−7%), Quality Score 36/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2207 calculated?
We run Hotai Motor Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 484.91 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hotai Motor Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 523.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 484.91 TWD, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hotai Motor Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (356.25 TWD to 730.27 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207) come from?
Earnings per share at Hotai Motor Co Ltd grew +7.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin +7.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hotai Motor Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The market capitalisation of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 346B TWD (≈ $10.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 1.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
Earnings per share at Hotai Motor Co Ltd are 33.88 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The dividend yield of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 3.8% (payout 59.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The net margin of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
The operating margin of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
Revenue at Hotai Motor Co Ltd is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207)?
Earnings per share at Hotai Motor Co Ltd are growing +11.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hotai Motor Co Ltd (2207) carry?
The net debt of Hotai Motor Co Ltd is 291B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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