Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $13.3B
Penske Automotive Group
PAG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +17.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($133.29 to $302.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $133.29 (bear) to $302.32 (bull), base $241.86. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.31 – $223.44 · fair‑value band $133.29 – $302.32 · the $216.40 price screens below the $241.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) currently trades at $216.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $241.86, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Penske Automotive Group generated revenue of $31.7B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue declined 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at $8.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $133.29 (bear case) to $302.32 (bull case); at $216.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 12%, PAG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($241.86) versus Asset-Based ($56.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally.
Full company description
Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments. The company operates franchise dealerships under franchise agreements with various automotive manufacturers and distributors. It is also involved in the sale of new and used vehicles, maintenance and repair services, sale and placement of third-party finance and insurance products, third-party extended service and maintenance contracts, replacement and aftermarket automotive products, collision repair services, and wholesale of parts. In addition, the company operates a heavy and medium duty truck dealership, which offers Freightliner and Western Star branded trucks, as well as offers a range of used trucks. Further, it imports and distributes Western Star heavy-duty trucks, MAN heavy and medium duty trucks and buses, and Dennis Eagle refuse collection vehicles with associated parts, as well as distributes diesel and gas engines, and power systems. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Penske Automotive Group reported revenue of $31.8B in FY2025 versus $25.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $935M in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PAG Q2 Deep Dive: Diversification and Commercial Truck Momentum Drive Outperformance
- Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strong ...
- Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Penske (PAG) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
| Asbury Automotive Group ABG | $211.97 | $449.22 | +112% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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