Arecor Therapeutics plc (AREC) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · GB · Market cap 24.0M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −7.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.3145). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.4125 – £4.88 · fair‑value band £0.1870 – £0.3145 · the £0.6350 price screens above the £0.2550 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Arecor Therapeutics plc (AREC) currently trades at £0.6350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.2550, implying the stock looks roughly 59.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arecor Therapeutics plc generated revenue of £1.7M at a net margin of 38.7%. Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £2.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.1870 (bear case) to £0.3145 (bull case); at £0.6350, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -60%, AREC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£0.3500) versus Asset-Based (£0.1100). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arecor Therapeutics plc, a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics that address diabetes, obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases in the United Kingdom.
Full company description
Arecor Therapeutics plc, a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics that address diabetes, obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases in the United Kingdom. The company's lead therapeutic product is the AT278, a disruptor insulin which is designed to transform Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) systems to improve patient care for people living with diabetes. It also develops a novel oral delivery platform using a GLP-1 receptor agonist. Arecor Therapeutics plc was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Little Chesterford, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arecor Therapeutics plc reported revenue of £1.7M in FY2025 versus £1.2M in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was £664K in FY2025.
AREC screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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