Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Arecor Therapeutics PLC £0.26, price £0.89, upside -71.2%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.3800 – £4.50 · fair‑value band £0.1870 – £0.3145 · the £0.8850 price screens above the £0.2550 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Arecor Therapeutics plc, a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics that address diabetes, obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases in the United Kingdom.
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Arecor Therapeutics plc, a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics that address diabetes, obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases in the United Kingdom. The company's lead therapeutic product is the AT278, a disruptor insulin which is designed to transform Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) systems to improve patient care for people living with diabetes. It also develops a novel oral delivery platform using a GLP-1 receptor agonist. Arecor Therapeutics plc was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Little Chesterford, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC) currently trades at £0.8850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.2550, implying the stock looks roughly 247.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £0.4800 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the £0.8850 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.1100, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.1870 (bear) to £0.3145 (bull), the price of £0.8850 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Arecor Therapeutics PLC reported revenue of £1.7M in FY2025 versus £1.2M in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was £664K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 34.9M GBX · P/E ratio 44.3 · P/S ratio 17.1 · EPS (TTM) £0.0200 · Net margin 38.7% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −64.3% · Operating margin −236%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −71%, AREC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.1870Fair Value £0.2550Bull £0.3145
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0147 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−66.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
’18
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−201.9% (2020) → −268.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
Compare Arecor Therapeutics PLC with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 654 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets−30% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)44.3× · Pricier than median
P/B7.15× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)26.91× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)2· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.2550 versus a price of £0.8850, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AREC?
Our model-based fair value for Arecor Therapeutics PLC is £0.2550 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.8850.
What is the quality score of AREC?
Arecor Therapeutics PLC has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.2550 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.1870, optimistic scenario £0.3145. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arecor Therapeutics PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.2550, about −71% upside versus a price of £0.8850 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.1870, optimistic scenario £0.3145. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
Arecor Therapeutics PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arecor Therapeutics PLC it is £0.2550 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.8850. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arecor Therapeutics PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AREC trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.8850, fair value £0.2550, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AREC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.8850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.2550). For Arecor Therapeutics PLC the two are £0.6300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arecor Therapeutics PLC worth?
The market values Arecor Therapeutics PLC at about 34.9M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.8850; our models calculate a fair value of £0.2550 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AREC?
Our models span a range for Arecor Therapeutics PLC: cautious scenario £0.1870, base £0.2550, optimistic £0.3145 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.8850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AREC?
Arecor Therapeutics PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.2550 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.2, P/S 26.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arecor Therapeutics PLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AREC from its 52-week high?
Arecor Therapeutics PLC trades at £0.8850, about 4% below its 52-week high of £0.9250 and 54% above the low of £0.5750 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.2550 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arecor Therapeutics PLC?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arecor Therapeutics PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.8850, calculated fair value £0.2550 (−71%), Quality Score 42/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AREC calculated?
We run Arecor Therapeutics PLC through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.2550, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Arecor Therapeutics PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.8850. Our model-based fair value is £0.2550, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arecor Therapeutics PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.3145). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Arecor Therapeutics PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
The market capitalisation of Arecor Therapeutics PLC is 34.9M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arecor Therapeutics PLC is 17.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
Earnings per share at Arecor Therapeutics PLC are £0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
The net margin of Arecor Therapeutics PLC is 38.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arecor Therapeutics PLC is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arecor Therapeutics PLC is −64.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
The operating margin of Arecor Therapeutics PLC is −236% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC)?
Revenue at Arecor Therapeutics PLC is growing +0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC) generate?
The free cash flow of Arecor Therapeutics PLC is −2.4M GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arecor Therapeutics PLC (AREC) hold?
Arecor Therapeutics PLC holds more cash than debt, 2.9M GBX net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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