Argo Investments Ltd (ARG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Argo Investments Ltd A$7.86, price A$9.12, upside -13.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$7.28 – A$9.48 · fair‑value band A$5.90 – A$9.83 · the A$9.12 price screens above the A$7.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Argo Investments Limited is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm manages separate client focused equity portfolios for its clients. It invests in public equity markets of Australia. The firm employs a qualitative analysis with bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolio. It conducts in-house analysis to make its investments.
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Argo Investments Limited is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm manages separate client focused equity portfolios for its clients. It invests in public equity markets of Australia. The firm employs a qualitative analysis with bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolio. It conducts in-house analysis to make its investments. Argo Investments Limited was founded in 1946 and is based in Adelaide, Australia with an additional office in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Argo Investments Ltd (ARG) currently trades at A$9.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.86, implying the stock looks roughly 16.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: A$5.90 (bear) to A$9.83 (bull), the price of A$9.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Argo Investments Ltd reported revenue of A$296M in FY2026 versus A$332M in FY2022, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$260M in FY2026, compounding −4.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.9B (≈ $4.9B) · P/E ratio 26.1 · P/S ratio 22.9 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3500 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 87.8% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −14%, ARG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$5.90Fair Value A$7.86Bull A$9.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.103% → 96%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)89% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)96% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Argo Investments Ltd (ARG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$7.86 versus a price of A$9.12, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARG?
Our model-based fair value for Argo Investments Ltd is A$7.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$9.12.
What is the quality score of ARG?
Argo Investments Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$7.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$5.90, optimistic scenario A$9.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Argo Investments Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$7.86, about −14% upside versus a price of A$9.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$5.90, optimistic scenario A$9.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
Argo Investments Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$301M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Argo Investments Ltd pay a dividend?
Argo Investments Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Argo Investments Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARG use?
Our models discount Argo Investments Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Argo Investments Ltd that is +14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Argo Investments Ltd (ARG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Argo Investments Ltd grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Argo Investments Ltd (+14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.10 %: that much free cash flow Argo Investments Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Argo Investments Ltd it is A$7.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$9.12. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Argo Investments Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$9.12, fair value A$7.86, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$9.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$7.86). For Argo Investments Ltd the two are A$1.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Argo Investments Ltd worth?
The market values Argo Investments Ltd at about A$6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$9.12; our models calculate a fair value of A$7.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARG?
Our models span a range for Argo Investments Ltd: cautious scenario A$5.90, base A$7.86, optimistic A$9.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$9.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARG?
Argo Investments Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$7.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 16.7, EV/EBITDA 17.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Argo Investments Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARG from its 52-week high?
Argo Investments Ltd trades at A$9.12, about 4% below its 52-week high of A$9.48 and 10% above the low of A$8.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$7.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Argo Investments Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Argo Investments Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$9.12, calculated fair value A$7.86 (−14%), Quality Score 68/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARG calculated?
We run Argo Investments Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$7.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Argo Investments Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$9.12. Our model-based fair value is A$7.86, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Argo Investments Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG) come from?
Earnings per share at Argo Investments Ltd grew +0.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Argo Investments Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The market capitalisation of Argo Investments Ltd is A$6.9B (≈ $4.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Argo Investments Ltd is 22.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
Earnings per share at Argo Investments Ltd are A$0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The dividend yield of Argo Investments Ltd is 4.2% (payout 110%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The net margin of Argo Investments Ltd is 87.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Argo Investments Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Argo Investments Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
The operating margin of Argo Investments Ltd is 95.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
Revenue at Argo Investments Ltd is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Argo Investments Ltd (ARG)?
Earnings per share at Argo Investments Ltd are growing +8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Argo Investments Ltd (ARG) hold?
Argo Investments Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$73.3M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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