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AAK AB (ARHUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AAK AB $11.87, price $18.92, upside -37.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AA
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
AAK AB
ARHUF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $11.87 · Strongly overvalued (−37.3%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $9.04 to $32.53
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.74 – $28.30 · fair‑value band $9.04 – $32.53 · the $18.92 price screens above the $11.87 fair value. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
AAK AB (publ.) develops and sells plant-based oils and fats in Sweden and internationally. It operates through Food Ingredients, Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, and Technical Products & Feed segments.
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AAK AB (publ.) develops and sells plant-based oils and fats in Sweden and internationally. It operates through Food Ingredients, Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, and Technical Products & Feed segments. The company offers food ingredients for chocolate and confectionery; dairy and ice cream; bakery; lecithin; special nutrition; foodservice and retail; personal care; candles; technical products; and animal nutrition. It also provides natural emulsifiers; fatty acids; plant-based candle waxes; and animal feed, proteins, and fats products. AAK AB (publ.) was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Stock analysis
AAK AB (ARHUF) currently trades at $18.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.87, 37.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $24.64 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the $18.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.10, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.04 (bear) to $32.53 (bull), the price of $18.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AAK AB reported revenue of 46.0B SEK in FY2025 versus 35.5B SEK in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 3.4B SEK in FY2025, compounding +24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.8B · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) $1.41 · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4% · Revenue (TTM) 46.3B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −37%, ARHUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.04
Fair Value $11.87
Bull $32.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.07 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings
$13.52
$20.61
$31.12
76
Residual Income
$8.15
$10.39
$15.71
75
EPV
$12.77
$14.71
$16.39
74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$13.52
$20.61
$31.12
76
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$8.88
$28.77
$38.41
64
Lynch FV
$6.41
$9.16
$11.91
61
PEG = 1.0
$6.41
$9.16
$11.91
57
EPV
$12.77
$14.71
$16.39
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$20.58
$27.43
$34.29
63
P/S Multiple
$16.66
$22.21
$27.76
58
P/B Multiple
$16.66
$22.21
$27.76
55
EV/EBIT
$23.16
$30.73
$38.30
66
EV/EBITDA
$21.09
$27.97
$34.85
67
EV/Revenue
$16.66
$23.60
$30.55
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.80
$5.10
$7.61
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$8.15
$10.39
$15.71
75
ROIC Compounder
$13.63
$17.03
$21.00
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$17.25
$24.64
$32.04
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
’14
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’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.6% vs 13.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
ARHUF screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Compare AAK AB with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 74.63 | CHF 59.51 | −20% |
| Danone S.A BN | €59.12 | €50.65 | −14% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥33.93 | ¥37.32 | +10% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $23.45 | $29.20 | +25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,363 | ₹724.74 | −47% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥26.90 | ¥41.84 | +56% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥24.55 | ¥9.98 | −59% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $31.67 | $34.59 | +9% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.68 SGD | 5.14 SGD | +40% |
| Kerry Group KRZ | €85.55 | €59.96 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is AAK AB (ARHUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.87 versus a price of $18.92, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARHUF?
Our model-based fair value for AAK AB is $11.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.92.
What is the quality score of ARHUF?
AAK AB has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AAK AB (ARHUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.04, optimistic scenario $32.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AAK AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.87, about −37% upside versus a price of $18.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.04, optimistic scenario $32.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
AAK AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 46.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AAK AB it is $11.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $18.92. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AAK AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ARHUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.92, fair value $11.87, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARHUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.87). For AAK AB the two are $7.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AAK AB worth?
The market values AAK AB at about $6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $18.92; our models calculate a fair value of $11.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARHUF?
Our models span a range for AAK AB: cautious scenario $9.04, base $11.87, optimistic $32.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $18.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARHUF?
AAK AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.87 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AAK AB (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.9%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARHUF from its 52-week high?
AAK AB trades at $18.92, about 33% below its 52-week high of $28.30 and at the low of $18.92 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AAK AB?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AAK AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $18.92, calculated fair value $11.87 (−37%), Quality Score 63/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARHUF calculated?
We run AAK AB through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AAK AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $18.92. Our model-based fair value is $11.87, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AAK AB right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($9.04 to $32.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of AAK AB (ARHUF) come from?
Earnings per share at AAK AB grew +13.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.8 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AAK AB
How large is the market capitalisation of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
The market capitalisation of AAK AB is $6.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AAK AB is 1.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
Earnings per share at AAK AB are $1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
The net margin of AAK AB is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AAK AB is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AAK AB (ARHUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AAK AB is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at AAK AB (ARHUF)?
Revenue at AAK AB is growing −3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AAK AB (ARHUF)?
Earnings per share at AAK AB are growing +3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AAK AB (ARHUF) generate?
The free cash flow of AAK AB is −441M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AAK AB (ARHUF) carry?
The net debt of AAK AB is 2.9B SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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