ARYZTA AG (ARZTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 26, 2026: fair value of ARYZTA AG $102, price $62.68, upside +62.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch ARYZTA AG for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
ARYZTA AG provides products and services for in-store bakery solutions in Europe and internationally. It offers pastries, cookies, buns, breads, rolls, artisan loaves, sweet baked goods, morning goods, and savoury and other products. The company is also involved in asset management services; and distribution of food products.
Show more
ARYZTA AG provides products and services for in-store bakery solutions in Europe and internationally. It offers pastries, cookies, buns, breads, rolls, artisan loaves, sweet baked goods, morning goods, and savoury and other products. The company is also involved in asset management services; and distribution of food products. In addition, it serves grocery, convenience, and independent retailers, as well as quick service restaurants (QSR) and other foodservice customers under the Hiestand, Mette Munk, Pre Pain, Cuisine de France, Coup de Pates, La Carte, Oh My Sweetness, and Fornetti brands. ARYZTA AG was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Schlieren, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
ARYZTA AG (ARZTF) currently trades at $62.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $101.57, implying the stock looks roughly 38.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $93.22 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $62.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.80, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $67.33 (bear) to $135.94 (bull), the price of $62.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ARYZTA AG reported revenue of €2.2B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was €112M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $4.72 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 22.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 62%, ARZTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $67.33Fair Value $101.57Bull $135.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.72 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.4% (2020) → 7.8% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.2% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.03× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ARYZTA AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARZTF
Frequently asked questions
Is ARYZTA AG (ARZTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $101.57 versus the last price from Jun 26, 2026 of $62.68, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARZTF?
Our model-based fair value for ARYZTA AG is $101.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 26, 2026): $62.68.
What is the quality score of ARZTF?
ARYZTA AG has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $101.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $67.33, optimistic scenario $135.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ARYZTA AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $101.57, about +62% upside versus the last price from Jun 26, 2026 of $62.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $67.33, optimistic scenario $135.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
ARYZTA AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ARYZTA AG pay a dividend?
ARYZTA AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ARYZTA AG would have to grow free cash flow by -3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARZTF use?
Our models discount ARYZTA AG at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ARYZTA AG that is -3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ARYZTA AG (ARZTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ARYZTA AG grew -5.4 % a year. The price currently implies -3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ARYZTA AG (-3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.55 %: that much free cash flow ARYZTA AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ARYZTA AG it is $101.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $62.68. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ARYZTA AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARZTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $62.68, fair value $101.57, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARZTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($62.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($101.57). For ARYZTA AG the two are $38.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ARYZTA AG worth?
The market values ARYZTA AG at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $62.68; our models calculate a fair value of $101.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARZTF?
Our models span a range for ARYZTA AG: cautious scenario $67.33, base $101.57, optimistic $135.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $62.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARZTF?
ARYZTA AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $101.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ARYZTA AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 22.3%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to ARYZTA AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ARYZTA AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $62.68, calculated fair value $101.57 (+62%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARZTF calculated?
We run ARYZTA AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $101.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ARYZTA AG currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 26, 2026 and stands at $62.68. Our model-based fair value is $101.57, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ARYZTA AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($67.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($67.33 to $135.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF) come from?
Earnings per share at ARYZTA AG grew −32.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −29.7 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ARYZTA AG
How large is the market capitalisation of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The market capitalisation of ARYZTA AG is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ARYZTA AG is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
Earnings per share at ARYZTA AG are $4.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The dividend yield of ARYZTA AG is 1.5% (payout 19.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The net margin of ARYZTA AG is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ARYZTA AG is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ARYZTA AG is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
The operating margin of ARYZTA AG is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
Revenue at ARYZTA AG is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ARYZTA AG (ARZTF)?
Earnings per share at ARYZTA AG are growing +0.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ARYZTA AG (ARZTF) carry?
The net debt of ARYZTA AG is €478M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch ARYZTA AG in the live analysis
One click puts ARYZTA AG on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026