Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Astra Graphia Tbk IDR 3,934, price IDR 2,110, upside +86.4%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 479.90 IDR – 2,280 IDR · fair‑value band 3,160 IDR – 4,604 IDR · the 2,110 IDR price screens below the 3,934 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Astra Graphia Tbk engages in the trading, industrial, consulting, office equipment and supplies contracting, information technology, telecommunication, professional, scientific and technical, and investment businesses in Indonesia. It operates through Document Solution and Information Technology Solution segments.
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PT Astra Graphia Tbk engages in the trading, industrial, consulting, office equipment and supplies contracting, information technology, telecommunication, professional, scientific and technical, and investment businesses in Indonesia. It operates through Document Solution and Information Technology Solution segments. The company offers intelligent document management solutions comprising multi-function devices, single function and multi-function laser printers, and consumables for print management, workflow management, data capture, enterprise content management, intelligent document processing, cloud-based solutions, and document management systems; managed print, document outsourcing and communication services, and business process services; and printing technology solutions, including end-to-end print production management software, heavy-duty digital laser and inkjet printers, and finishing solutions. It also engages in hardware and software sales; information technology and digital platform infrastructure development; and application development activities. In addition, the company provides managed services, such as data center and cloud collaboration; IT implementation and operation, cybersecurity, and cloud services; myveego, an IoT Services application; myZ, a data integration and analytics solution; and mysights, a mobile and business application. Further, it offers online and offline procurement services; printing solutions and various printed products; and contracting and engineering work services, as well as distributes 3D printer products. The company serves small enterprises and large corporations. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Astra Graphia Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Astra International Tbk.
Stock analysis
Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) currently trades at 2,110 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,934 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 4,666 IDR per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the 2,110 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,039 IDR, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3,160 IDR (bear) to 4,604 IDR (bull), the price of 2,110 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Astra Graphia Tbk reported revenue of 3.0T IDR in FY2025 versus 3.3T IDR in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 271B IDR in FY2025, compounding +32.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.8T IDR (≈ $159M) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) 217.26 IDR · Dividend yield 11.4% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 86%, ASGR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3,160 IDRFair Value 3,934 IDRBull 4,604 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+52.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25% vs 0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 10%
2025 sits 92% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 248 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+86% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)11.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,934 IDR versus a price of 2,110 IDR, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASGR?
Our model-based fair value for Astra Graphia Tbk is 3,934 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,110 IDR.
What is the quality score of ASGR?
Astra Graphia Tbk has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,934 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3,160 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,604 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Astra Graphia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,934 IDR, about +86% upside versus a price of 2,110 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 3,160 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,604 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
Astra Graphia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Astra Graphia Tbk pay a dividend?
Astra Graphia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Astra Graphia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -21.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASGR use?
Our models discount Astra Graphia Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Astra Graphia Tbk that is -21.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Astra Graphia Tbk grew -2.2 % a year. The price currently implies -21.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Astra Graphia Tbk (-21.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.61 %: that much free cash flow Astra Graphia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Astra Graphia Tbk it is 3,934 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,110 IDR. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Astra Graphia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ASGR trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,110 IDR, fair value 3,934 IDR, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASGR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,110 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,934 IDR). For Astra Graphia Tbk the two are 1,824 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Astra Graphia Tbk worth?
The market values Astra Graphia Tbk at about 2.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,110 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 3,934 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASGR?
Our models span a range for Astra Graphia Tbk: cautious scenario 3,160 IDR, base 3,934 IDR, optimistic 4,604 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,110 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASGR?
Astra Graphia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,934 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Astra Graphia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASGR from its 52-week high?
Astra Graphia Tbk trades at 2,110 IDR, about 7% below its 52-week high of 2,280 IDR and 126% above the low of 935.21 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,934 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Astra Graphia Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Astra Graphia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,110 IDR, calculated fair value 3,934 IDR (+86%), Quality Score 72/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASGR calculated?
We run Astra Graphia Tbk through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,934 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Astra Graphia Tbk currently trades 86 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 2,110 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 3,934 IDR, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Astra Graphia Tbk right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (3,160 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) come from?
Earnings per share at Astra Graphia Tbk grew −2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin −5.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Astra Graphia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The market capitalisation of Astra Graphia Tbk is 2.8T IDR (≈ $159M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Astra Graphia Tbk is 0.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
Earnings per share at Astra Graphia Tbk are 217.26 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The dividend yield of Astra Graphia Tbk is 11.4% (payout 111%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The net margin of Astra Graphia Tbk is 9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Astra Graphia Tbk is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Astra Graphia Tbk is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
The operating margin of Astra Graphia Tbk is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
Revenue at Astra Graphia Tbk is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR)?
Earnings per share at Astra Graphia Tbk are growing +47.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) hold?
Astra Graphia Tbk holds more cash than debt, 1.8T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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