Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Adani Wilmar Limited ₹187, price ₹184, upside +1.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range ₹171.40 – ₹836.63 · fair‑value band ₹130.68 – ₹242.68 · the ₹184.34 price screens below the ₹186.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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AWL Agri Business Limited, a fast-moving consumer goods food company, provides kitchen commodities in India and internationally. It operates through Edible Oils, Food & FMCG, and Industry Essentials segments.
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AWL Agri Business Limited, a fast-moving consumer goods food company, provides kitchen commodities in India and internationally. It operates through Edible Oils, Food & FMCG, and Industry Essentials segments. The company offers soyabean, palm, sunflower, rice bran, mustard, groundnut, cottonseed, olive, and blended oil; specialty fats, noodles, snacks, bakery and dairy products, ready-to-eat meals, animal feed, and lauric products. It also provides basic oleochemicals, such as stearic acids, soap noodles, palmitic acids, lauric and mystic acid, distilled fatty acid, oleic acids, fatty alcohol, double fractionated stearin, and glycerin; food emulsifiers, polymer additives, agrochemical, lubricants and oilfield additives, and alkoxylates, as well as other specialty oleochemicals for Ink, paints and coating, and home and personal care products; lecithin; and de-oiled cakes that are used as livestock feeds. In addition, the company offers wheat flour, rice, pulses, sugar, besan, poha, rawa, suji, soya chunks, sattu, soya flour, soya nuggets, soya flakes, and soya bari; and soaps, handwash, and sanitizers. Further, it manufactures packaging products. The company provides its products under the Fortune, King's, Aadhar, Bullet, Raag, Alpha, Jubilee, Avsar, Golden Chef, Fryola, Kohinoor, Charminar, Tops, Trophy, and Alife brand names, as well as e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Adani Wilmar Limited and changed its name to AWL Agri Business Limited in March 2025. AWL Agri Business Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Ahmedabad, India. AWL Agri Business Limited is a subsidiary to Lence Pte. Ltd.
Stock analysis
Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) currently trades at ₹184.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹186.68, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹304.86 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹184.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹54.09, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹130.68 (bear) to ₹242.68 (bull), the price of ₹184.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Adani Wilmar Limited reported revenue of ₹747B in FY2026 versus ₹542B in FY2022, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹10.4B in FY2026, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹239B (≈ $2.5B) · P/E ratio 22.9 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) ₹8.06 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 1%, AWL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹130.68Fair Value ₹186.68Bull ₹242.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹3.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
2026 sits 80% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.8% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 654 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+1.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.5% · Above median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹186.68 versus a price of ₹184.34, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AWL?
Our model-based fair value for Adani Wilmar Limited is ₹186.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹184.34.
What is the quality score of AWL?
Adani Wilmar Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹186.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹130.68, optimistic scenario ₹242.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adani Wilmar Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹186.68, about +1% upside versus a price of ₹184.34 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ₹130.68, optimistic scenario ₹242.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
Adani Wilmar Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹747B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Adani Wilmar Limited pay a dividend?
Adani Wilmar Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adani Wilmar Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AWL use?
Our models discount Adani Wilmar Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adani Wilmar Limited that is +13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adani Wilmar Limited grew +15.0 % a year. The price currently implies +13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adani Wilmar Limited (+13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.95 %: that much free cash flow Adani Wilmar Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adani Wilmar Limited it is ₹186.68 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹184.34. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adani Wilmar Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, AWL trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹184.34, fair value ₹186.68, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AWL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹184.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹186.68). For Adani Wilmar Limited the two are ₹2.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adani Wilmar Limited worth?
The market values Adani Wilmar Limited at about ₹239B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹184.34; our models calculate a fair value of ₹186.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AWL?
Our models span a range for Adani Wilmar Limited: cautious scenario ₹130.68, base ₹186.68, optimistic ₹242.68 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹184.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AWL?
Adani Wilmar Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹186.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adani Wilmar Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AWL from its 52-week high?
Adani Wilmar Limited trades at ₹184.34, about 33% below its 52-week high of ₹276.16 and 8% above the low of ₹171.40 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹186.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adani Wilmar Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adani Wilmar Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹184.34, calculated fair value ₹186.68 (+1%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AWL calculated?
We run Adani Wilmar Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹186.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Adani Wilmar Limited currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was ₹184.34. Our model-based fair value is ₹186.68, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adani Wilmar Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (₹130.68 to ₹242.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Adani Wilmar Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The market capitalisation of Adani Wilmar Limited is ₹239B (≈ $2.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adani Wilmar Limited is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
Earnings per share at Adani Wilmar Limited are ₹8.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The dividend yield of Adani Wilmar Limited is 0.5% (payout 12.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The net margin of Adani Wilmar Limited is 1.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adani Wilmar Limited is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adani Wilmar Limited is 21.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
The operating margin of Adani Wilmar Limited is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
Revenue at Adani Wilmar Limited is growing +18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL)?
Earnings per share at Adani Wilmar Limited are growing +53.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) carry?
The net debt of Adani Wilmar Limited is ₹64.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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