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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US96812F1021

BA Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

BAER · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $2.01 · Strongly undervalued (+112%)
!Quality 33/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +55.7 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -10.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 3.4%
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$22.08 $0.9237 Fair Value $2.01 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9237 – $22.08 · fair‑value band $1.11 – $2.51 · the $0.9460 price screens below the $2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States.

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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States. The company offers fire suppression services, such as aerial firefighting support for ground crews by operating the Viking CL-415EAF (Super Scooper) aircraft to drop water as part of the initial and direct attack to slow, contain, and extinguish wildfires. It also provides aerial surveillance services via manned (Air Attack) aircraft for fire suppression over an incident and providing tactical coordination with the incident commander, and decision-makers rapid, current intelligence from useful aerial vantage points, giving access to information to support ground firefighters and safety for the public. In addition, the company offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) that provides maintenance and repair services for return-to-service upgrades of the Spanish scoopers, as well as airframe modification and integration solutions for governmental and commercial customers. Further, it operates an aircraft fleet of nineteen planes. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Belgrade, Montana.

Stock analysis

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) currently trades at $0.9460, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.01, implying the stock looks roughly 52.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.63 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the $0.9460 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.7500, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.11 (bear) to $2.51 (bull), the price of $0.9460 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $123M in FY2025 versus $39.4M in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was $4.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $111M · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7000 · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity −31.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2% · Operating margin −296% · Revenue (TTM) $116M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 112%, BAER screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.11 Fair Value $2.01 Bull $2.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $0.8000 $0.8000 $0.7300 68
EV/EBITDA $4.09 $6.50 $8.91 66
Growth-Adj P/E $2.54 $3.63 $4.72 65
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.4900 $3.41 $4.78 61
Lynch FV $1.76 $2.51 $3.27 59
PEG = 1.0 $1.76 $2.51 $3.27 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.51 $2.01 $2.51 63
P/S Multiple $0.9200 $1.22 $1.53 58
P/B Multiple $0.9200 $1.22 $1.53 55
EV/EBIT $1.67 $3.27 $4.88 63
EV/EBITDA $4.09 $6.50 $8.91 66
EV/Revenue n/a $0.3300 $1.38 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.5600 $0.7500 $1.12 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.8000 $0.8000 $0.7300 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2.54 $3.63 $4.72 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 84
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 1
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 5
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−66.0% (2020) → 12.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 111 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +80% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −10% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −46% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.28× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.96× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 18.2× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 49

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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The Brink's Company BCO $106.56 $108.25 +2%
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$2.01 +53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAER

Frequently asked questions

Is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.01 versus a price of $0.9460, about +112% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BAER?
Our model-based fair value for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is $2.01 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.9460.
What is the quality score of BAER?
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.01 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $2.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.01, about +112% upside versus a price of $0.9460 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $2.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $116M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock it is $2.01 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.9460. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, BAER trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.9460, fair value $2.01, a gap of about +112% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAER?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.9460); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.01). For Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock the two are $1.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock at about $111M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.9460; our models calculate a fair value of $2.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAER?
Our models span a range for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $1.11, base $2.01, optimistic $2.51 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.9460). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −31.6%, debt of 3.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAER from its 52-week high?
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock trades at $0.9460, about 73% below its 52-week high of $3.44 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ASSA ABLOY AB, Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Securitas AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.9460, calculated fair value $2.01 (+112%), Quality Score 33/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAER calculated?
We run Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock currently trades 112 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $0.9460. Our model-based fair value is $2.01, about +112% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.11 to $2.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
The market capitalisation of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is $111M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is 0.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
Earnings per share at Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock are $−0.7000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
The net margin of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is 3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is −31.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is −4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
The operating margin of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is −296% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
Revenue at Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is growing −45.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)?
Earnings per share at Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock are growing +20.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) generate?
The free cash flow of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is −$64.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) carry?
The net debt of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is $213M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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