Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $111M

Below-average quality, and screening another 28% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• Our model range runs from $1.08 (bear) to $1.80 (bull), base $1.22. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 31/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.07 – $22.08 · fair‑value band $1.08 – $1.80 · the $1.69 price screens above the $1.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) currently trades at $1.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.22, implying the stock looks roughly 27.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Bridger Aerospace Group generated revenue of $116M at a net margin of -10.1%. Revenue declined 45.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -31.6%. Net debt stands at $213M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.08 (bear case) to $1.80 (bull case); at $1.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -28%, BAER screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($3.24) versus Asset-Based ($0.7500). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States.

Full company description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States. The company offers fire suppression services, such as aerial firefighting support for ground crews by operating the Viking CL-415EAF (Super Scooper) aircraft to drop water as part of the initial and direct attack to slow, contain, and extinguish wildfires. It also provides aerial surveillance services via manned (Air Attack) aircraft for fire suppression over an incident and providing tactical coordination with the incident commander, and decision-makers rapid, current intelligence from useful aerial vantage points, giving access to information to support ground firefighters and safety for the public. In addition, the company offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) that provides maintenance and repair services for return-to-service upgrades of the Spanish scoopers, as well as airframe modification and integration solutions for governmental and commercial customers. Further, it operates an aircraft fleet of nineteen planes. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Belgrade, Montana.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Bridger Aerospace Group reported revenue of $123M in FY2025 versus $39.4M in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was $4.1M in FY2025.

BAER screens 28% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.