Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Julius Baer Gruppe AG stock CHF 52.42, price CHF 68.24, that is 23.2% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 34.59 – CHF 76.76 · fair‑value band CHF 36.19 – CHF 85.84 · the CHF 68.24 price screens above the CHF 52.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally.
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The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory, and private markets and fund offering; wealth planning, and family office services. It also offers open product platform services.
Julius Bär Gruppe AG was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER) currently trades at CHF 68.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 52.42, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 160.75 per share, and 2 of the 9 models we run sit above the CHF 68.24 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 14.95, and 7 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 36.19 (bear) to CHF 85.84 (bull), the price of CHF 68.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Julius Baer Gruppe AG reported revenue of CHF 5.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 4.3B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 764M in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 14.0B Large · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 3.32 · EPS (TTM) CHF 5.54 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 27.0% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −23%, BAER screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 36.19Fair Value CHF 52.42BullCHF 85.84
Price CHF 68.24 · Downside -23.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 2.50 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+52.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Per share before 2012divided by the spin-off factor 1.0236
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.7% vs 8.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2005 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 16%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate signals in organization and human capital form the main strength while weak innovation and negative free cash flow remain the key limitations.
Main risk: Repeated enforcement actions by FINMA could require ongoing compliance reporting until 2032 and prior approvals for distributions, constraining client onboarding and operational flexibility in wealth management.
Bull case: Strengthened risk and compliance frameworks could satisfy regulators fully, allowing the bank to expand client relationships without restrictions and leverage its advisory expertise more effectively.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory demands could prolong restrictions on certain client segments and increase compliance costs, limiting the bank's ability to attract new high-net-worth clients.
Julius Baer has launched a up to 600 million franc share buyback after FINMA closed its enforcement case on legacy matters. At the same time ongoing de-risking of client relationships is set to continue weighing on net new money inflows well into 2027 even as the bank targets 4-5 percent annualised growth by 2028. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will returning surplus capital to shareholders unlock faster growth or will the compliance reset keep inflows subdued?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 593 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.2% · Above median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)27.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)39.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Julius Baer Gruppe AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAER
Frequently asked questions
Is Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 52.42 versus a price of CHF 68.24, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAER?
Our model-based fair value for Julius Baer Gruppe AG is CHF 52.42 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 68.24.
What is the quality score of BAER?
Julius Baer Gruppe AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 52.42 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 36.19, optimistic scenario CHF 85.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Julius Baer Gruppe AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 52.42, about 23% lower versus a price of CHF 68.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 36.19, optimistic scenario CHF 85.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
Julius Baer Gruppe AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 4.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Julius Baer Gruppe AG pay a dividend?
Julius Baer Gruppe AG currently shows a dividend yield of 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Julius Baer Gruppe AG it is CHF 52.42 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of CHF 68.24. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Julius Baer Gruppe AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BAER trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 68.24, fair value CHF 52.42, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 68.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 52.42). For Julius Baer Gruppe AG the two are CHF 15.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Julius Baer Gruppe AG worth?
The market values Julius Baer Gruppe AG at about CHF 14.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is CHF 68.24; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 52.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAER?
Our models span a range for Julius Baer Gruppe AG: cautious scenario CHF 36.19, base CHF 52.42, optimistic CHF 85.84 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price CHF 68.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BAER?
Julius Baer Gruppe AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 52.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 15.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.9, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of BAER?
The PEG ratio of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Julius Baer Gruppe AG (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 16.2%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAER from its 52-week high?
Julius Baer Gruppe AG trades at CHF 68.24, about 11% below its 52-week high of CHF 76.76 and 31% above the low of CHF 51.94 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 52.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Julius Baer Gruppe AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Julius Baer Gruppe AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price CHF 68.24, calculated fair value CHF 52.42 (−23%), Quality Score 55/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAER calculated?
We run Julius Baer Gruppe AG through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 52.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Julius Baer Gruppe AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was CHF 68.24. Our model-based fair value is CHF 52.42, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Julius Baer Gruppe AG right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 36.19 to CHF 85.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER) come from?
Earnings per share at Julius Baer Gruppe AG grew +8.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Julius Baer Gruppe AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
The market capitalisation of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is CHF 14.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is 3.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
Earnings per share at Julius Baer Gruppe AG are CHF 5.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
The dividend yield of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is 3.8% (payout 46.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
The net margin of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is 27.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
The operating margin of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is 39.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
Revenue at Julius Baer Gruppe AG is growing +25.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER)?
Earnings per share at Julius Baer Gruppe AG are growing +128% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER) generate?
The free cash flow of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is −CHF 148M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER) carry?
The net debt of Julius Baer Gruppe AG is CHF 968M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026