Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Burford Capital Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.0B · ISIN GG00BMGYLN96
At a glance
BCBurford Capital LtdBUR · US
Price$4.48
Fair Value$6.99
Upside+56.0%
Quality31/100
Below-average quality, trading 36% below our fair value of $6.99.
As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Burford Capital Ltd is $6.99 per share against a price of $4.48, so the fair value sits 56% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.79% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: LowRange $3.27 to $6.99
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +4.7% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
A fairly wide model range ($3.27 to $6.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.92 – $15.87 · fair‑value band $3.27 – $6.99 · the $4.48 price screens below the $6.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) currently trades at $4.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.99, implying the stock looks roughly 35.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $7.49 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $4.48 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.60, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Revenue declined 75.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −68.4%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Scenario range: $3.27 (bear) to $6.99 (bull), the price of $4.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at 56%, BUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence$7.53$7.11$5.3976
Owner Earnings$1.62$5.04$10.9869
Gordon GGM$0.9700$1.75$2.4168
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings$1.62$5.04$10.9869
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.94$11.99$16.7463
Lynch FV$3.44$4.92$6.3961
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$0.9700$1.75$2.4168
DDM Multi-Stage$0.9700$1.60$1.8767
Multiples
P/E Multiple$2.78$3.71$4.6463
P/B Multiple$3.64$4.86$6.0755
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$5.59$7.49$11.1754
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence$7.53$7.11$5.3976
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($7.49) versus Dividend Discount ($1.60). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
EPS (TTM)$−7.32
Dividend yield2.8%
Net margin18.4%FY2025
Return on equity−68.4%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)4.4%avg 5y
Operating margin91.3%TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM)−$1.4BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−75.3%3y avg +7.9%
EPS growth (YoY)+62.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−$29.3MFY2025
Net debt$1.6BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality31/100
Of which business quality 30
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility28
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance65
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services.
Full company description
Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services. The Principal Finance segment provides capital against the underlying value of high-value single or multiple litigation and arbitration matters at any stage of the process from before filing to after a final judgment has been entered; and to a law firm that has agreed to take a case on a contingent fee or alternative fee basis, as well as directly to the client. This segment also offers legal risk management and adverse legal cost insurance services. The Asset Management and Other Services segment manages legal finance assets on behalf of third-party investors, as well as provides other services to the legal industry. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Burford Capital Ltd reported revenue of $340M in FY2025 versus $108M in FY2021, a compound +33.2%/yr. Reported net income was $62.6M in FY2025.
Growth Quality 14/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$340M
Latest YoY
−28.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−17.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−20.7%
Dividend yield2.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −19.2% vs 10Y −1.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.65.9% (2020) → 24.7% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop113% (2021) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue+33.2%/yr
FY21$108M
FY22$271M
FY23$1.1B
FY24$472M
FY25$340M
Net income
FY21−$28.8M
FY22$30.5M
FY23$611M
FY24$146M
FY25$62.6M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+14.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share+20.8 %
of which total revenue +21.7 % · buybacks/dilution −0.8 %
EBIT margin−2.4 %
Tax rate−0.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−1.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 40
FUTURE0· sector 18
PAST0· sector 24
HEALTH79· sector 95
DIVIDEND56· sector 79
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Is Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.99 versus a price of $4.48, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BUR?
Our model-based fair value for Burford Capital Ltd is $6.99 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.48.
What is the quality score of BUR?
Burford Capital Ltd has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Burford Capital Ltd (BUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.99 (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.27, optimistic scenario $6.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Burford Capital Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.99, about +56% upside versus a price of $4.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.27, optimistic scenario $6.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the net profit margin of BUR?
The net profit margin of Burford Capital Ltd is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Burford Capital Ltd pay a dividend?
Burford Capital Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.79% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Burford Capital Ltd (BUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Burford Capital Ltd it is $6.99 per share (as of Aug 27, 2026), against a price of $4.48. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Burford Capital Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 27, 2026, BUR trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.48, fair value $6.99, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.99). For Burford Capital Ltd the two are $2.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Burford Capital Ltd worth?
The market values Burford Capital Ltd at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 27, 2026). Per share that is $4.48; our models calculate a fair value of $6.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BUR?
Our models span a range for Burford Capital Ltd: cautious scenario $3.27, base $6.99, optimistic $6.99 per share (as of Aug 27, 2026, price $4.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Burford Capital Ltd (BUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Burford Capital Ltd (as of Aug 27, 2026): return on equity −68.4%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BUR from its 52-week high?
Burford Capital Ltd trades at $4.48, about 70% below its 52-week high of $14.80 and 26% above the low of $3.54 (as of Aug 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Burford Capital Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Investor AB, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Burford Capital Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 27, 2026: price $4.48, calculated fair value $6.99 (+56%), Quality Score 31/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BUR calculated?
We run Burford Capital Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Burford Capital Ltd
BUR · US