California First National Bancorp (CFNB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 30, 2026: fair value of California First National Bancorp $30.05, price $33.95, upside -11.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.23 – $1,698 · fair‑value band $22.54 – $37.57 · the $33.95 price screens above the $30.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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California First Leasing Corporation engages in the provision of loans and lease financing for universities, businesses, other commercial or non-profit organizations, healthcare, and state and local municipalities.
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California First Leasing Corporation engages in the provision of loans and lease financing for universities, businesses, other commercial or non-profit organizations, healthcare, and state and local municipalities. The company was formerly known as California First National Bancorp and changed its name to California First Leasing Corporation in February 2021. California First Leasing Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Stock analysis
California First National Bancorp (CFNB) currently trades at $33.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.05, 11.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $22.54 (bear) to $37.57 (bull), the price of $33.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
California First National Bancorp reported revenue of $26.4M in FY2025 versus $48.7M in FY2021, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $20.3M in FY2025, compounding −13.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.1M · P/E ratio 0.1 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) $261.08 · Net margin 76.7% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Operating margin 98.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −11%, CFNB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.54Fair Value $30.05Bull $37.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($261.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.10/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 1 year
−46.2%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.3% vs 10.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 103%
Compare California First National Bancorp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−11.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)69.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)98.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−86.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "California First National Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CFNB
Frequently asked questions
Is California First National Bancorp (CFNB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.05 versus the last price from Jul 30, 2026 of $33.95, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CFNB?
Our model-based fair value for California First National Bancorp is $30.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 30, 2026): $33.95.
What is the quality score of CFNB?
California First National Bancorp has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.54, optimistic scenario $37.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the California First National Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.05, about −11% upside versus the last price from Jul 30, 2026 of $33.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.54, optimistic scenario $37.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For California First National Bancorp it is $30.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $33.95. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is California First National Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CFNB trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.95, fair value $30.05, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CFNB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.05). For California First National Bancorp the two are $3.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is California First National Bancorp worth?
The market values California First National Bancorp at about $6.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $33.95; our models calculate a fair value of $30.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CFNB?
Our models span a range for California First National Bancorp: cautious scenario $22.54, base $30.05, optimistic $37.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $33.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CFNB?
California First National Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.05 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
Balance-sheet figures for California First National Bancorp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CFNB from its 52-week high?
California First National Bancorp trades at $33.95, at its 52-week high of $33.95 and 81% above the low of $18.80 (as of Jul 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to California First National Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is California First National Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $33.95, calculated fair value $30.05 (−11%), Quality Score 51/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CFNB calculated?
We run California First National Bancorp through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $30.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. California First National Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 30, 2026 and stands at $33.95. Our model-based fair value is $30.05, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with California First National Bancorp right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of California First National Bancorp (CFNB) come from?
Earnings per share at California First National Bancorp grew +13.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of California First National Bancorp
How large is the market capitalisation of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
The market capitalisation of California First National Bancorp is $6.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of California First National Bancorp is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
Earnings per share at California First National Bancorp are $261.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
The net margin of California First National Bancorp is 76.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of California First National Bancorp is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of California First National Bancorp is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
The operating margin of California First National Bancorp is 98.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
Revenue at California First National Bancorp is growing −86.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at California First National Bancorp (CFNB)?
Earnings per share at California First National Bancorp are growing +290% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does California First National Bancorp (CFNB) generate?
The free cash flow of California First National Bancorp is −$7.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does California First National Bancorp (CFNB) hold?
California First National Bancorp holds more cash than debt, $33.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026