Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. stock C$4.65, price C$6.43, that is 27.7% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.88 – C$7.93 · fair‑value band C$3.85 – C$5.57 · the C$6.43 price screens above the C$4.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 13, 2026.
Follow Calfrac Well Services in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Calfrac Well Services is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Calfrac Well Services Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides specialized oilfield services in Canada, the United States, and Argentina. The company offers hydraulic fracturing, coiled tubing, cementing, and wireline services for the oil and natural gas industries.
Show moreShow less
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) currently trades at C$6.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$4.65, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$16.67 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$6.43 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$3.41, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$3.85 (bear) to C$5.57 (bull), the price of C$6.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. reported revenue of C$1.4B in FY2025 versus C$880M in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$30.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$648M (≈ $454M) Small · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) C$0.7200 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −28%, CFW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$3.85Fair Value C$4.65BullC$5.57
Price C$6.43 · Downside -27.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.6253 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFC$10.19C$20.02C$36.9474
EPVC$4.53C$5.47C$6.2974
Growth DCFC$9.98C$18.63C$32.7773
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$10.19C$20.02C$36.9474
Owner EarningsC$9.08C$17.98C$33.3070
5Y Revenue ExitC$7.86C$14.88C$24.4768
5Y EBITDA ExitC$8.34C$15.89C$25.4471
5Y P/E ExitC$4.27C$7.26C$10.5868
10Y Revenue ExitC$8.28C$15.19C$25.9962
10Y EBITDA ExitC$8.87C$15.92C$26.8064
10Y P/E ExitC$6.21C$9.68C$14.3861
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddC$2.04C$10.38C$14.3461
Lynch FVC$2.82C$4.03C$5.2459
PEG = 1.0C$2.82C$4.03C$5.2455
EPVC$4.53C$5.47C$6.2974
Multiples
P/E MultipleC$3.15C$4.20C$5.2563
P/S MultipleC$3.82C$5.10C$6.3758
P/B MultipleC$2.97C$3.96C$4.9555
EV/EBITC$4.72C$7.01C$9.3065
EV/EBITDAC$7.54C$10.77C$14.0067
EV/RevenueC$6.19C$9.75C$13.3253
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)C$2.55C$3.41C$5.1054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$9.98C$18.63C$32.7773
Rev-Margin DCFC$7.86C$14.71C$23.8268
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeC$4.89C$4.86C$5.0768
ROIC CompounderC$4.53C$5.47C$6.2970
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EC$3.52C$5.03C$6.5565
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−21% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 31.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 144% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.1% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Calfrac Well Services Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 172 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.0% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.98× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.48× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.22× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)31· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Calfrac Well Services Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CFW
Frequently asked questions
Is Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$4.65 versus a price of C$6.43, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CFW?
Our model-based fair value for Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is C$4.65 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$6.43.
What is the quality score of CFW?
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$4.65 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$3.85, optimistic scenario C$5.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Calfrac Well Services Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$4.65, about 28% lower versus a price of C$6.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$3.85, optimistic scenario C$5.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Calfrac Well Services Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +0.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CFW use?
Our models discount Calfrac Well Services Ltd. at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Calfrac Well Services Ltd. that is +0.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Calfrac Well Services Ltd. grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (+0.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.89 %: that much free cash flow Calfrac Well Services Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Calfrac Well Services Ltd. it is C$4.65 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of C$6.43. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Calfrac Well Services Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, CFW trades above its calculated fair value: price C$6.43, fair value C$4.65, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CFW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$6.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$4.65). For Calfrac Well Services Ltd. the two are C$1.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Calfrac Well Services Ltd. worth?
The market values Calfrac Well Services Ltd. at about C$648M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is C$6.43; our models calculate a fair value of C$4.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CFW?
Our models span a range for Calfrac Well Services Ltd.: cautious scenario C$3.85, base C$4.65, optimistic C$5.57 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price C$6.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CFW?
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$4.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CFW?
The PEG ratio of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is 0.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CFW from its 52-week high?
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. trades at C$6.43, about 19% below its 52-week high of C$7.93 and 107% above the low of C$3.11 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$4.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Calfrac Well Services Ltd.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Tenaris S.A, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Calfrac Well Services Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price C$6.43, calculated fair value C$4.65 (−28%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CFW calculated?
We run Calfrac Well Services Ltd. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$4.65 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Calfrac Well Services Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was C$6.43. Our model-based fair value is C$4.65, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Calfrac Well Services Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Calfrac Well Services Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
The market capitalisation of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is C$648M (≈ $454M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is 0.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
Earnings per share at Calfrac Well Services Ltd. are C$0.7200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
The net margin of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is 4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
The operating margin of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
Revenue at Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW)?
Earnings per share at Calfrac Well Services Ltd. are growing +92.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) carry?
The net debt of Calfrac Well Services Ltd. is C$215M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Calfrac Well Services Ltd. in the live analysis
One click puts Calfrac Well Services Ltd. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 13, 2026