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China Feihe Limited (CHFLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what China Feihe Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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CF
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
China Feihe Limited
CHFLF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $0.6100 · Strongly undervalued (+56%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range $0.3214 – $0.8515 · fair‑value band $0.3900 – $0.8900 · the $0.3900 price screens below the $0.6100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
China Feihe Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells dairy products, raw milk, and nutritional supplements in Mainland China, Canada, Indonesia, and the United States. It operates through two segments, Dairy Products and Nutritional Supplements Products; and Raw Milk.
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China Feihe Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells dairy products, raw milk, and nutritional supplements in Mainland China, Canada, Indonesia, and the United States. It operates through two segments, Dairy Products and Nutritional Supplements Products; and Raw Milk. The company offers dairy products adult milk powders; liquid milk products; and rice powder supplement products, as well as health care products. It also retails vitamins, minerals, herbs, and other nutritional supplements. The company sells its products distributors, retailers, e-commerce platforms, and end consumers through e-commerce channels. China Feihe Limited was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Feihe Limited (CHFLF) currently trades at $0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6100, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $4.04 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.3900 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.49, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3900 (bear) to $0.8900 (bull), the price of $0.3900 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Feihe Limited reported revenue of 17.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 22.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −27.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.9% · Operating margin 12.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 56%, CHFLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3900
Fair Value $0.6100
Bull $0.8900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.65
$2.07
$2.71
82
Growth DCF
$1.66
$2.03
$2.55
80
Owner Earnings
$1.88
$2.43
$3.25
78
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.65
$2.07
$2.71
82
Owner Earnings
$1.88
$2.43
$3.25
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.42
$3.59
$5.11
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3.67
$5.93
$8.63
75
5Y P/E Exit
$3.06
$4.80
$6.65
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.06
$3.05
$4.41
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.90
$4.64
$7.05
67
10Y P/E Exit
$2.52
$3.87
$5.56
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.46
$4.69
$6.26
64
Lynch FV
$1.04
$1.49
$1.93
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.04
$1.49
$1.93
57
EPV
$3.19
$3.56
$3.88
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.24
$4.46
$6.76
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.24
$3.69
$4.71
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.38
$4.50
$5.63
63
P/S Multiple
$2.40
$3.21
$4.01
58
P/B Multiple
$2.74
$3.65
$4.56
55
EV/EBIT
$5.91
$7.60
$9.28
66
EV/EBITDA
$5.29
$6.77
$8.25
67
EV/Revenue
$2.95
$3.86
$4.76
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.39
$1.86
$2.78
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.66
$2.03
$2.55
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.42
$3.57
$4.88
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.29
$2.44
$2.64
76
ROIC Compounder
$3.29
$3.92
$4.69
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.83
$4.04
$5.25
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability
45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
39/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23% vs 16%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 20%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.1%
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Compare China Feihe Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 647 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 77.54 | CHF 57.26 | −26% |
| Danone S.A BN | €61.38 | €48.41 | −21% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,384 | ₹251.94 | −82% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $24.60 | $24.66 | +0% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥34.18 | ¥37.60 | +10% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥26.66 | ¥41.84 | +57% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥26.38 | ¥9.98 | −62% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $35.85 | $27.48 | −23% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.71 SGD | 4.19 SGD | +13% |
| Uni-President Enterprises Corp 1216 | 75.00 TWD | 68.72 TWD | −8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Feihe Limited (CHFLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6100 versus a price of $0.3900, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHFLF?
Our model-based fair value for China Feihe Limited is $0.6100 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3900.
What is the quality score of CHFLF?
China Feihe Limited has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6100 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3900, optimistic scenario $0.8900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Feihe Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6100, about +56% upside versus a price of $0.3900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.3900, optimistic scenario $0.8900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
China Feihe Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Feihe Limited would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHFLF use?
Our models discount China Feihe Limited at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Feihe Limited that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Feihe Limited (CHFLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Feihe Limited grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Feihe Limited (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.22 %: that much free cash flow China Feihe Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Feihe Limited it is $0.6100 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.3900. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Feihe Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CHFLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3900, fair value $0.6100, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHFLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6100). For China Feihe Limited the two are $0.2200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Feihe Limited worth?
The market values China Feihe Limited at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.3900; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHFLF?
Our models span a range for China Feihe Limited: cautious scenario $0.3900, base $0.6100, optimistic $0.8900 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.3900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHFLF?
China Feihe Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CHFLF?
The PEG ratio of China Feihe Limited is 1.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Feihe Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHFLF from its 52-week high?
China Feihe Limited trades at $0.3900, about 41% below its 52-week high of $0.6625 and 13% above the low of $0.3462 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Feihe Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Nestlé India Limited, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Feihe Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.3900, calculated fair value $0.6100 (+56%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHFLF calculated?
We run China Feihe Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. China Feihe Limited currently trades 56 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with China Feihe Limited right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.3900 to $0.8900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of China Feihe Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
The market capitalisation of China Feihe Limited is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Feihe Limited is 1.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
Earnings per share at China Feihe Limited are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
The net margin of China Feihe Limited is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Feihe Limited is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Feihe Limited is 15.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
The operating margin of China Feihe Limited is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
Revenue at China Feihe Limited is growing −15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Feihe Limited (CHFLF)?
Earnings per share at China Feihe Limited are growing −44.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Feihe Limited (CHFLF) hold?
China Feihe Limited holds more cash than debt, $6.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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