China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd $12.19, price $22.30, upside -45.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.35 – $56.51 · fair‑value band $11.86 – $15.23 · the $22.30 price screens above the $12.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others.
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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others. The Liquid Milk Business segment offers ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, yogurt, and fresh milk. The Ice Cream Business segment manufactures and distributes dairy-based ice cream. The Milk Formula Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of milk powder. The Cheese Business segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of cheese. The Other segment is involved in manufacturing raw materials for daily products; and trading business. It also produces and sells organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers; sells raw materials; and provides commercial factoring and financing guarantee services. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR (CIADY) currently trades at $22.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.19, 45.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $30.27 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $22.30 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.72, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.86 (bear) to $15.23 (bull), the price of $22.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of 80.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 88.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.7B · P/E ratio 38.4 · P/S ratio 0.72 · EPS (TTM) $0.5800 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −45%, CIADY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.86Fair Value $12.19Bull $15.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0454 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.1% vs −4.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.5% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
Compare China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−44.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)38.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.72× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF9.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.30× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)46· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CIADY
Frequently asked questions
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.19 versus a price of $22.30, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CIADY?
Our model-based fair value for China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is $12.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.30.
What is the quality score of CIADY?
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.86, optimistic scenario $15.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.19, about −45% upside versus a price of $22.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.86, optimistic scenario $15.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 82.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CIADY use?
Our models discount China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR that is -7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies -7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR (-7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.78 %: that much free cash flow China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR it is $12.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $22.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CIADY trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.30, fair value $12.19, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIADY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.19). For China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR the two are $10.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR at about $8.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $22.30; our models calculate a fair value of $12.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIADY?
Our models span a range for China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $11.86, base $12.19, optimistic $15.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $22.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CIADY?
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CIADY?
The PEG ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIADY from its 52-week high?
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR trades at $22.30, about 10% below its 52-week high of $24.80 and 28% above the low of $17.44 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $22.30, calculated fair value $12.19 (−45%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CIADY calculated?
We run China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $22.30. Our model-based fair value is $12.19, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY) come from?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR grew −1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The market capitalisation of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is $8.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 0.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR are $0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The dividend yield of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 2.3% (payout 89.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The net margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
The operating margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
Revenue at China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is growing −7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY)?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR are growing −15.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (CIADY) carry?
The net debt of China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd ADR is 12.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026