Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT IDR 5,005, price IDR 4,550, upside +10.0%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range 2,740 IDR – 6,165 IDR · fair‑value band 2,869 IDR – 11,399 IDR · the 4,550 IDR price screens below the 5,005 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk produces and sells dairy and consumer products in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Dairy Products and Consumer Foods segments. The company offers milk, yogurt, sausages, chicken nuggets, luncheon meat, and meatballs, as well as egg-based products under the Cimory and Kanzler brands.
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PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk produces and sells dairy and consumer products in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Dairy Products and Consumer Foods segments. The company offers milk, yogurt, sausages, chicken nuggets, luncheon meat, and meatballs, as well as egg-based products under the Cimory and Kanzler brands. It is also involved in acting as an agent and distributor; and food processing and canning activities. PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY) currently trades at 4,550 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5,005 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 10,497 IDR per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the 4,550 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 572.88 IDR, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2,869 IDR (bear) to 11,399 IDR (bull), the price of 4,550 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT reported revenue of 10.7T IDR in FY2025 versus 4.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound +27.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.0T IDR in FY2025, compounding +26.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 36.1T IDR (≈ $3.6B) · P/E ratio 17.1 · P/S ratio 3.25 · EPS (TTM) 265.52 IDR · Net margin 19.0% · Return on equity 28.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.0% · Operating margin 20.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 10%, CMRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2,869 IDRFair Value 5,005 IDRBull 11,399 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (194.23 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 21%
2025 sits 64% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.2% a year for the price and +10.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5,005 IDR versus a price of 4,550 IDR, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMRY?
Our model-based fair value for Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 5,005 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4,550 IDR.
What is the quality score of CMRY?
Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5,005 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,869 IDR, optimistic scenario 11,399 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5,005 IDR, about +10% upside versus a price of 4,550 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2,869 IDR, optimistic scenario 11,399 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +41.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMRY use?
Our models discount Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT that is +15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT grew +41.9 % a year. The price currently implies +15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (+15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.92 %: that much free cash flow Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT it is 5,005 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4,550 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMRY trades below its calculated fair value: price 4,550 IDR, fair value 5,005 IDR, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4,550 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5,005 IDR). For Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT the two are 455.00 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT worth?
The market values Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT at about 36.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4,550 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 5,005 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMRY?
Our models span a range for Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT: cautious scenario 2,869 IDR, base 5,005 IDR, optimistic 11,399 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4,550 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMRY?
Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5,005 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 5.3, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 13.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CMRY?
The PEG ratio of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 1.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 28.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMRY from its 52-week high?
Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT trades at 4,550 IDR, about 26% below its 52-week high of 6,165 IDR and 10% above the low of 4,120 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5,005 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4,550 IDR, calculated fair value 5,005 IDR (+10%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMRY calculated?
We run Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5,005 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 4,550 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 5,005 IDR, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT right now?
The model range is unusually wide (2,869 IDR to 11,399 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
The market capitalisation of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 36.1T IDR (≈ $3.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 3.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
Earnings per share at Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT are 265.52 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
The net margin of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 19.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 28.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 21.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
The operating margin of Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
Revenue at Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT is growing +27.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY)?
Earnings per share at Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT are growing +15.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT (CMRY) hold?
Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk PT holds more cash than debt, 947B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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