Coface SA (COFA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Coface SA stock €16.46, price €16.12, upside +2.1%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.19 – €17.49 · fair‑value band €12.35 – €20.58 · the €16.12 price screens below the €16.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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COFACE SA, through its subsidiaries, provides trade credit insurance products and services for small and medium enterprises, mid-market companies, international corporations, international companies, financial institutions, and clients of distribution partners.
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It offers insurance products, including TradeLiner; EasyLiner, a range of contracts for small and medium enterprises; GlobaLiner, that offers multinationals services, and management and oversight tools; CofaNet, a central internet portal that enables policyholders to manage their contracts; Coface Dashboard, a tool providing client risk analyses and reports; CofaMove, a mobile app that includes the key features of CofaNet; CofaServe, an API offer; and AlyX, a credit risk management software, as well as Single Risk medium-term insurance for commercial and political risks.
The company also provides business information, debt collection, factoring and surety bonds services. In addition, it offers contract surety bonds, customs and excise bonds, environmental surety bonds, legal bonds for temporary employment companies, and payment guarantees.
Further, the company provides Urba360, a universal risk business assessment; Full report that provides complete financial data, a score, a maximum recommended credit limit and debtor risk assessment using an 11-point scale; Snapshot report, an instant report that provides a summary of the key aspects needed to assess business partners; Score which determines a company's ability to meet its short-term financial commitments; Credit Opinions which provides a recommended outstanding amount for a company; compliance control tools; Portfolio Insights and Selectio, an interactive portfolio management tools; and Economic Insights.
It has operations in Western Europe, Africa, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, North America, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific. COFACE SA was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Bois-Colombes, France.
Stock analysis
Coface SA (COFA) currently trades at €16.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.46, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €19.57 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the €16.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.26, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €12.35 (bear) to €20.58 (bull), the price of €16.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Coface SA reported revenue of €1.9B in FY2025 versus €1.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was €222M in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 1.32 · EPS (TTM) €1.35 · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 2%, COFA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€12.35Fair Value €16.46Bull€20.58
Price €16.12 · Upside +2.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0868 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.9% vs 6.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.2% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Coface's main strength is its credit insurance expertise sustaining an excellent combined ratio even with record bankruptcies, while its main weakness is the lack of confirmed durable advantages amid heavy spending on AI data tools.
Main risk: Cyclical reinsurance pricing reduces the durability of Coface's credit insurance advantages and would hit the value created by its risk discipline.
Coface keeps delivering an excellent combined ratio through its credit insurance expertise even while bankruptcies stay at record levels and growth stays weak. At the same time it invests heavily in business information and AI-driven data tools to expand that side of the business at double-digit rates, which raises short-term costs. Will the insurance operations' risk discipline create more enduring value than the services expansion, or the other way around?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Reinsurance · 22 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+2.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.7% · Below median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)11.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)18.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Reinsurance median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.09× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.32× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.1× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Coface SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COFA
Frequently asked questions
Is Coface SA (COFA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €16.46 versus a price of €16.12, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of COFA?
Our model-based fair value for Coface SA is €16.46 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €16.12.
What is the quality score of COFA?
Coface SA has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Coface SA (COFA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €16.46 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.35, optimistic scenario €20.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Coface SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €16.46, about +2% upside versus a price of €16.12 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €12.35, optimistic scenario €20.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Coface SA (COFA)?
Coface SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Coface SA pay a dividend?
Coface SA currently shows a dividend yield of 7.75% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Coface SA (COFA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Coface SA pays a dividend of €1.25 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.8%. The last ex-dividend date was May 26, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 92.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.86 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Coface SA (COFA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Coface SA would have to grow free cash flow by +2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COFA use?
Our models discount Coface SA at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Coface SA that is +2.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Coface SA (COFA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Coface SA grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Coface SA (COFA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Coface SA (+2.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Coface SA (COFA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.63 %: that much free cash flow Coface SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Coface SA (COFA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Coface SA it is €16.46 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of €16.12. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Coface SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, COFA trades below its calculated fair value: price €16.12, fair value €16.46, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COFA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€16.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€16.46). For Coface SA the two are €0.3400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Coface SA worth?
The market values Coface SA at about €2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is €16.12; our models calculate a fair value of €16.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COFA?
Our models span a range for Coface SA: cautious scenario €12.35, base €16.46, optimistic €20.58 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price €16.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COFA?
Coface SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €16.46 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 10.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Coface SA (COFA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Coface SA (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 1.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COFA from its 52-week high?
Coface SA trades at €16.12, about 8% below its 52-week high of €17.49 and 20% above the low of €13.39 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €16.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Coface SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value MUV2, Swiss Re AG, Hannover Rück SE, Reinsurance Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Coface SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price €16.12, calculated fair value €16.46 (+2%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COFA calculated?
We run Coface SA through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €16.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Coface SA currently trades 2% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Coface SA (COFA)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was €16.12. Our model-based fair value is €16.46, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Coface SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Coface SA (COFA) come from?
Earnings per share at Coface SA grew +11.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Coface SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Coface SA (COFA)?
The market capitalisation of Coface SA is €2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Coface SA (COFA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Coface SA is 1.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Coface SA (COFA)?
Earnings per share at Coface SA are €1.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Coface SA (COFA)?
The dividend yield of Coface SA is 7.8% (payout 92.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Coface SA (COFA)?
The net margin of Coface SA is 11.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Coface SA (COFA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Coface SA is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Coface SA (COFA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Coface SA is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Coface SA (COFA)?
The operating margin of Coface SA is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Coface SA (COFA)?
Revenue at Coface SA is growing +3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Coface SA (COFA)?
Earnings per share at Coface SA are growing −12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Coface SA (COFA) carry?
The net debt of Coface SA is €1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026