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Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS (COSMO) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · TR · Market cap 812M TRY (≈ $16.8M) · ISIN TRABUMYO91Q2

What is Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS really worth?

CY Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS COSMO · IS
Price120.80 TRY
Fair Value31.41 TRY
Upside−74.0%
Quality43/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 285% above our fair value of 31.41 TRY.

As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS is 31.41 TRY per share against a price of 120.80 TRY, so the fair value sits 74% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +75.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.7% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/9)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 22 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range 23.82 TRY – 39.00 TRY

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Share price +2.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (39.00 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

304.25 TRY 7.50 TRY Fair Value 31.41 TRY May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7.50 TRY – 304.25 TRY · fair‑value band 23.82 TRY – 39.00 TRY · the 120.80 TRY price screens above the 31.41 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS (COSMO) currently trades at 120.80 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 31.41 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 284.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 35.14 TRY per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 120.80 TRY price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.27 TRY, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS generated revenue of 645M TRY at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −5.7%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 19.8. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 23.82 TRY (bear case) to 39.00 TRY (bull case); at 120.80 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −74%, COSMO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (3.27 TRY to 40.51 TRY). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV best evidence 22.91 TRY 25.89 TRY 28.38 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 26.63 TRY 35.14 TRY 44.83 TRY 70
EV/EBITDA 16.64 TRY 21.83 TRY 27.02 TRY 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV best evidence 22.91 TRY 25.89 TRY 28.38 TRY 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT 23.82 TRY 31.41 TRY 39.00 TRY 66
EV/EBITDA 16.64 TRY 21.83 TRY 27.02 TRY 67
EV/Revenue 28.68 TRY 40.51 TRY 52.35 TRY 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 2.44 TRY 3.27 TRY 4.89 TRY 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 26.63 TRY 35.14 TRY 44.83 TRY 70

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (35.14 TRY) versus Asset-Based (3.27 TRY). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 19.8
P/S ratio 1.26 TTM
EPS (TTM) 6.11 TRY price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8
Net margin −1.4% FY2023
Return on equity −5.7% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −9.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 645M TRY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.4% 3y avg +121%
EPS growth (YoY) +46.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −33.6M TRY FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 68
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Cosmos Yatirim Holding Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the purchase, sale, trade, loading, unloading, storage, and distribution of petroleum and petroleum derivative products in Turkey. The company purchases and sells paintings, sculptures, and works of art, as well as carries out related commercial activities.

Full company description

Cosmos Yatirim Holding Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the purchase, sale, trade, loading, unloading, storage, and distribution of petroleum and petroleum derivative products in Turkey. The company purchases and sells paintings, sculptures, and works of art, as well as carries out related commercial activities. It also draws mechanical, electrical, and construction projects; participates in construction contracting works; constructs and sells residences, workplaces, and commercial buildings; purchases lands to build buildings; and provides engineering and architectural services. Further, the company installs hospital rooms, operating rooms, laboratories, clean rooms, and air conditioning systems; establishes monitoring and control rooms in subways, stadiums, and hospitals, and performs maintenance and repair of the installed systems. Additionally, it produces and sells electrical and electronic automated, distribution, and medium voltage and low current panels for industrial facilities, energy facilities, shopping malls, and hospitals. Further, the company takeovers, transfers, operates, operates, and franchising shops of wholesale and retail purchase; and engaged in sale, distribution, import and export of hamburgers and hamburger by-products, and materials. The company was formerly known as Cosmos Yatirim Ortakligi AS and changed its name to Cosmos Yatirim Holding Anonim Sirketi in December 2013. Cosmos Yatirim Holding Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS reported revenue of 321M TRY in FY2023 versus 34.8M TRY in FY2019, a compound +74.3%/yr. Reported net income was −4.5M TRY in FY2023.

Growth Quality 50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
321M TRY
Latest YoY
+288.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+121.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+75.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.7%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.5% (2018) → 6.5% (2023)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2023 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +74.3%/yr
FY19 34.8M TRY
FY20 29.7M TRY
FY21 29.2M TRY
FY22 82.6M TRY
FY23 321M TRY
Net income
FY19 2.7M TRY
FY20 336K TRY
FY21 2.7M TRY
FY22 15.6M TRY
FY23 −4.5M TRY

COSMO screens 285% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COSMO.IS

Peer Group

Asset Management · 695 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −74% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 4% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 40
FUTURE22 · sector 15
PAST0 · sector 24
HEALTH100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND0 · sector 81

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $142.39 $52.88 −63%
Investor AB INVEB kr 408.05 kr 827.56 +103%
Brookfield Corporation BN C$55.74 C$10.67 −81%
KKR & Co KKR $108.68 $19.97 −82%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $135.04 $101.04 −25%
State Street Corporation STT $193.33 $138.33 −28%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $559.32 $515.24 −8%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $143.10 $30.88 −78%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $186.79 $122.02 −35%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $181.10 $142.42 −21%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS (COSMO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 31.41 TRY versus a price of 120.80 TRY, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COSMO?
Our model-based fair value for Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS is 31.41 TRY (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 120.80 TRY.
What is the quality score of COSMO?
Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS (COSMO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 31.41 TRY (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 23.82 TRY, optimistic scenario 39.00 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 31.41 TRY, about −74% upside versus a price of 120.80 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 23.82 TRY, optimistic scenario 39.00 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS (COSMO)?
Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 645M TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of COSMO?
The net profit margin of Cosmos Yatirim Holding AS is about 0.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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