AXA SA (CS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · FR · Market cap €89.5B · ISIN FR0000120628
What is AXA SA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 12% above our fair value of €39.90.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of AXA SA is €39.90 per share against a price of €44.64, so the fair value sits 11% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Share price −0.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €15.63 – €45.57 · fair‑value band €29.93 – €49.89 · the €44.64 price screens above the €39.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Analysis
AXA SA (CS) currently trades at €44.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €39.90, implying the stock looks roughly 11.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €39.12 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €44.64 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €15.54, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, AXA SA generated revenue of €94.7B at a net margin of 10.4%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €6.4B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €29.93 (bear case) to €49.89 (bull case); at €44.64, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −11%, CS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.7474 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (€39.12) versus Asset-Based (€15.54). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AXA SA, through its subsidiaries, insurance, asset management, and banking services worldwide. The company operates through France, Europe, AXA XL, Asia, Africa & EME-LATAM, and Transversal & Other segments. It offers life and savings insurance and property and casualty insurance products.
Full company description
AXA SA, through its subsidiaries, insurance, asset management, and banking services worldwide. The company operates through France, Europe, AXA XL, Asia, Africa & EME-LATAM, and Transversal & Other segments. It offers life and savings insurance and property and casualty insurance products. The company also provides protection and retirement products for individual and professional customers; reinsurance coverages; property, primary and excess casualty, excess and surplus lines, environmental liability, professional liability, construction, marine, energy, aviation and satellite, fine art and specie, livestock and aquaculture, accident and health, and crisis management. In addition, it offers reinsurance solutions with casualty, property risk, property catastrophe, specialty, and other reinsurance; proportional and non-proportional, and facultative reinsurance; risk management solutions and consulting services; integrated ecosystem between healthcare solutions and the insurance coverage, which includes onsite services in clinics, remote teleconsultation and digital services, and home services; travel insurance and assistance services, as well as AXA Multilink platform, a B2B2C platform; Sophia, the customer facing GenAI chatbot; and EMMA, a digital assistant. Further, the company offers motor, household, property and general liability, banking, savings, health, term life, whole life, universal life, endowment, deferred and immediate annuities, and other investment-based products for retail/individual and commercial/group customers. AXA SA was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AXA SA reported revenue of €116B in FY2025 versus €122B in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was €9.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −2.4 % · buybacks/dilution +1.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CS screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must AXA SA deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: French Stocks
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB80 | 1.67 THB | 1.48 THB | −11% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €450.60 | €266.04 | −41% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 596.00 | CHF 335.07 | −44% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €44.11 | €10.92 | −75% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$108.85 | C$57.05 | −48% |
| American International Group AIG | $76.14 | $80.91 | +6% |
| The Hartford Insurance Group HIG | $137.38 | $133.10 | −3% |
| Arch Capital Group ACGL | $98.10 | $124.45 | +27% |
| Swiss Life Holding SLHN | CHF 919.00 | CHF 425.23 | −54% |
| Sampo Oyj SAMPO | €9.68 | €6.06 | −37% |
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