PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk IDR 2,355, price IDR 3,020, upside -22.0%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 873.09 IDR – 8,063 IDR · fair‑value band 1,766 IDR – 2,943 IDR · the 3,020 IDR price screens above the 2,355 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Citra Tubindo Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides pipes and accessories, and related services to the oil and gas industries in Indonesia. The company operates through Pipe Processing; Transportation Services and Others, and Technical Support segments.
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PT Citra Tubindo Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides pipes and accessories, and related services to the oil and gas industries in Indonesia. The company operates through Pipe Processing; Transportation Services and Others, and Technical Support segments. The company offers finishing and threading of pipes; and heat treatment process for seamless pipes, as well as manufactures accessories. It also provides technical support services related to intellectual property. In addition, the company offers port, transportation, and stevedoring services. It exports its products. PT Citra Tubindo Tbk was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Batam, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN) currently trades at 3,020 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,355 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 6,521 IDR per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the 3,020 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 881.20 IDR, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,766 IDR (bear) to 2,943 IDR (bull), the price of 3,020 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PT Citra Tubindo Tbk reported revenue of $264M in FY2025 versus $93.8M in FY2021, a compound +29.5%/yr. Reported net income was $21.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.0T IDR (≈ $404M) · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 2.28 · EPS (TTM) 108.00 IDR · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% · Operating margin −3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −22%, CTBN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,766 IDRFair Value 2,355 IDRBull 2,943 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (79.00 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+67.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+67.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.67% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−23.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−80% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,355 IDR versus a price of 3,020 IDR, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTBN?
Our model-based fair value for PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is 2,355 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,020 IDR.
What is the quality score of CTBN?
PT Citra Tubindo Tbk has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,355 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,766 IDR, optimistic scenario 2,943 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Citra Tubindo Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,355 IDR, about −22% upside versus a price of 3,020 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,766 IDR, optimistic scenario 2,943 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
PT Citra Tubindo Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $189M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Citra Tubindo Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -23.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTBN use?
Our models discount PT Citra Tubindo Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Citra Tubindo Tbk that is -23.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Citra Tubindo Tbk grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies -23.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (-23.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.71 %: that much free cash flow PT Citra Tubindo Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Citra Tubindo Tbk it is 2,355 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 3,020 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Citra Tubindo Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CTBN trades above its calculated fair value: price 3,020 IDR, fair value 2,355 IDR, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTBN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,020 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,355 IDR). For PT Citra Tubindo Tbk the two are 665.48 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Citra Tubindo Tbk worth?
The market values PT Citra Tubindo Tbk at about 4.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 3,020 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,355 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTBN?
Our models span a range for PT Citra Tubindo Tbk: cautious scenario 1,766 IDR, base 2,355 IDR, optimistic 2,943 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 3,020 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTBN?
PT Citra Tubindo Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,355 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 25.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTBN from its 52-week high?
PT Citra Tubindo Tbk trades at 3,020 IDR, about 63% below its 52-week high of 8,063 IDR and at the low of 3,020 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,355 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Citra Tubindo Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Citra Tubindo Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 3,020 IDR, calculated fair value 2,355 IDR (−22%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTBN calculated?
We run PT Citra Tubindo Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,355 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Citra Tubindo Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 3,020 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,355 IDR, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Citra Tubindo Tbk right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2,943 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN) come from?
Earnings per share at PT Citra Tubindo Tbk grew +2.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
The market capitalisation of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is 4.0T IDR (≈ $404M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is 2.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
Earnings per share at PT Citra Tubindo Tbk are 108.00 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
The net margin of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
The operating margin of PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
Revenue at PT Citra Tubindo Tbk is growing −80.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)?
Earnings per share at PT Citra Tubindo Tbk are growing −94.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN) hold?
PT Citra Tubindo Tbk holds more cash than debt, $62.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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