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Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Chartwell Retirement Residences is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Chartwell Retirement Residences
CWSRF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.51 · Strongly overvalued (−83%)
!Quality 43/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +3.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 29/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.19 – $16.56 · fair‑value band $1.27 – $2.81 · the $14.68 price screens above the $2.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Chartwell Retirement Residences is in the business of serving and caring for Canada's seniors, committed to its vision of Making People's Lives BETTER and to providing a happier, healthier, and more fulfilling life experience for its residents.
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Chartwell Retirement Residences is in the business of serving and caring for Canada's seniors, committed to its vision of Making People's Lives BETTER and to providing a happier, healthier, and more fulfilling life experience for its residents. Chartwell is an unincorporated, open ended real estate trust which indirectly owns and operates a complete range of seniors housing communities, from independent living through to assisted living and long-term care. Chartwell is one of the largest operators in Canada, serving approximately 25,000 residents in four provinces across the country. Chartwell Retirement Residences was established on July 07, 2003 and incorporated in Ontario, Canada.
Stock analysis
Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) currently trades at $14.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.51, implying the stock looks roughly 484.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $5.95 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $14.68 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.4000, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.27 (bear) to $2.81 (bull), the price of $14.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Chartwell Retirement Residences reported revenue of C$1.1B in FY2025 versus C$904M in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$29.4M in FY2025, compounding +30.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.0B · P/S ratio 4.25 · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 15.6% · Revenue (TTM) $1.2B · Revenue growth (YoY) +22.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −83%, CWSRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.4000 to $9.22). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.27
Fair Value $2.51
Bull $2.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
$0.7700
$5.15
77
Residual Income
$3.65
$3.48
$2.66
76
Growth DCF
n/a
$0.4000
$3.90
75
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
$0.7700
$5.15
77
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$2.24
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.76
$8.49
$16.56
69
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$2.33
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.2700
$5.68
$13.27
59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.46
$6.90
$10.44
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.46
$5.95
$7.28
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$1.16
$1.54
$1.93
58
P/B Multiple
$1.16
$1.54
$1.93
55
EV/EBIT
n/a
n/a
$1.47
61
EV/EBITDA
$5.15
$9.22
$13.30
65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.63
$3.53
$5.27
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
n/a
$0.4000
$3.90
75
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
n/a
$2.06
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.65
$3.48
$2.66
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
43/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
24
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
66/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs −18%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+22.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.8%
CWSRF screens 485% overvalued. Compare with Welltower Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Chartwell Retirement Residences's Dividend Analysis
- Chartwell Announces August 2026 Distribution
- Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX:CSH.UN) Stock Looks Stretched Despite Strong Q2 Results
- Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: 12th Consecutive ...
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welltower Inc WELL | $235.62 | $71.83 | −70% |
| Ventas, Inc VTR | $89.99 | $36.31 | −60% |
| Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI | $46.99 | $57.49 | +22% |
| Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC | $20.30 | $22.31 | +10% |
| American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR | $53.58 | $12.03 | −78% |
| CareTrust REIT, Inc CTRE | $38.62 | $38.15 | −1% |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR | $18.90 | $20.60 | +9% |
| Aedifica NV AED | €65.70 | €46.56 | −29% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA | $20.52 | $22.66 | +10% |
| National Health Investors, Inc NHI | $70.32 | $66.98 | −5% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.51 versus a price of $14.68, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWSRF?
Our model-based fair value for Chartwell Retirement Residences is $2.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.68.
What is the quality score of CWSRF?
Chartwell Retirement Residences has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.27, optimistic scenario $2.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chartwell Retirement Residences stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.51, about −83% upside versus a price of $14.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.27, optimistic scenario $2.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
Chartwell Retirement Residences reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chartwell Retirement Residences would have to grow free cash flow by +22.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CWSRF use?
Our models discount Chartwell Retirement Residences at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chartwell Retirement Residences that is +22.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chartwell Retirement Residences grew +3.7 % a year. The price currently implies +22.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chartwell Retirement Residences (+22.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.59 %: that much free cash flow Chartwell Retirement Residences produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chartwell Retirement Residences it is $2.51 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $14.68. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chartwell Retirement Residences stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CWSRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.68, fair value $2.51, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWSRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.51). For Chartwell Retirement Residences the two are $12.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chartwell Retirement Residences worth?
The market values Chartwell Retirement Residences at about $5.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $14.68; our models calculate a fair value of $2.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWSRF?
Our models span a range for Chartwell Retirement Residences: cautious scenario $1.27, base $2.51, optimistic $2.81 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $14.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CWSRF from its 52-week high?
Chartwell Retirement Residences trades at $14.68, about 12% below its 52-week high of $16.71 and 20% above the low of $12.27 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chartwell Retirement Residences?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Welltower Inc, Ventas, Inc, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc, Healthpeak Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chartwell Retirement Residences stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $14.68, calculated fair value $2.51 (−83%), Quality Score 43/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWSRF calculated?
We run Chartwell Retirement Residences through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Chartwell Retirement Residences itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Chartwell Retirement Residences right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($1.27 to $2.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Chartwell Retirement Residences grew −14.9 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.4 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate −4.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chartwell Retirement Residences
How large is the market capitalisation of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
The market capitalisation of Chartwell Retirement Residences is $5.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chartwell Retirement Residences is 4.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
The net margin of Chartwell Retirement Residences is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chartwell Retirement Residences is 0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chartwell Retirement Residences is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
The operating margin of Chartwell Retirement Residences is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
Revenue at Chartwell Retirement Residences is growing +22.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF)?
Earnings per share at Chartwell Retirement Residences are growing −79.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chartwell Retirement Residences (CWSRF) carry?
The net debt of Chartwell Retirement Residences is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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