Welltower Inc (WELL) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $163B
Welltower Inc
WELL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.59 – $252.07 · fair‑value band $26.72 – $35.88 · the $236.00 price screens above the $35.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Welltower Inc (WELL) currently trades at $236.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.88, implying the stock looks roughly 84.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Welltower Inc generated revenue of $11.8B at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue grew 38.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at $16.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.72 (bear case) to $35.88 (bull case); at $236.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -85%, WELL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($52.90) versus Growth DCF ($12.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Welltower Inc. is a S&P 500 company, is positioned at the center of the silver economy, focusing on rental housing for aging seniors across the United States, United Kingdom and Canada.
Full company description
Welltower Inc. is a S&P 500 company, is positioned at the center of the silver economy, focusing on rental housing for aging seniors across the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Our portfolio of 2,000+ seniors and wellness housing communities are positioned at the intersection of housing and hospitality, creating vibrant communities for mature renters and older adults. We believe our real estate portfolio is unmatched, located in highly attractive micro markets with stunning built environments. Yet, we are an unusual real estate organization as we view ourselves as an operating company in a real estate wrapper, driven by highly aligned partnerships and an unconventional culture. Through our disciplined approach to capital allocation powered by our Data Science platform and superior operating results driven by the Welltower Business System - our end-to-end operating platform - we aspire to deliver long-term compounding of per share growth for our existing investors, our North Star. Welltower Inc. was incorporated in 1970 in Delaware and is based in Toledo, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Welltower Inc reported revenue of $10.7B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $937M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.
WELL screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Ventas, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Welltower (WELL) Earnings Beat Keeps Fair Value In Focus
- Welltower Inc (WELL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Growth and Strategic Investments ...
- Welltower's Q2 FFO Beat Estimates on Strong SHO NOI Growth
Peer Group
REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Healthcare Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ventas, Inc VTR | $100.53 | $18.07 | -82% |
| Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI | $51.72 | $33.69 | -35% |
| Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC | $22.27 | $7.02 | -68% |
| American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR | $56.38 | $11.04 | -80% |
| CareTrust REIT, Inc CTRE | $43.25 | $23.07 | -47% |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR | $21.40 | $20.60 | -4% |
| Aedifica NV AED | €69.85 | €36.17 | -48% |
| Chartwell Retirement Residences CSHUN | C$22.81 | C$3.52 | -85% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA | $22.36 | $10.49 | -53% |
| National Health Investors, Inc NHI | $80.54 | $49.86 | -38% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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