Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$4.67 – R$22.05 · fair‑value band R$9.35 – R$25.12 · the R$20.64 price screens above the R$12.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution.
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Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution. It offers life, home and housing, personal accident, and debt-free insurance products for individuals; and life, home and housing, car, and lender's insurance products for businesses. The company also provides social security, including private and corporate pension plans; capitalization; consortium; and brokerage and intermediation of security products. In addition, it engages in the acquisition of equity interests or holding; administration, marketing, and provision of private health and dental plans; structuring, administration, and marketing of credit letters; and reinsurance and retrocession transactions. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brasília, Brazil. Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Caixa Econômica Federal.
Stock analysis
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) currently trades at R$20.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$12.46, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$20.31 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$20.64 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$3.03, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$9.35 (bear) to R$25.12 (bull), the price of R$20.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A reported revenue of R$2.5B in FY2025 versus R$895M in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$4.3B in FY2025, compounding +24.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$61.9B (≈ $12.1B) · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 24.7 · EPS (TTM) R$1.46 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 75.1% · Return on equity 31.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −40%, CXSE3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$9.35Fair Value R$12.46Bull R$25.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.6012 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.6%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 16%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.229% → 196%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−38% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Return on assets21% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)75% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)82% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.1× · Pricier than median
P/B4.24× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)9.58× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)55· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)97· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$12.46 versus a price of R$20.64, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CXSE3?
Our model-based fair value for Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is R$12.46 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$20.64.
What is the quality score of CXSE3?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$12.46 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$9.35, optimistic scenario R$25.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$12.46, about −40% upside versus a price of R$20.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$9.35, optimistic scenario R$25.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$5.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A pay a dividend?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +6.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.4 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CXSE3 use?
Our models discount Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A that is +6.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A grew +22.4 % a year. The price currently implies +6.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (+6.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.90 %: that much free cash flow Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A it is R$12.46 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of R$20.64. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, CXSE3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$20.64, fair value R$12.46, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CXSE3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$20.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$12.46). For Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A the two are R$8.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A worth?
The market values Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A at about R$61.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is R$20.64; our models calculate a fair value of R$12.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CXSE3?
Our models span a range for Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A: cautious scenario R$9.35, base R$12.46, optimistic R$25.12 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price R$20.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CXSE3?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$12.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 9.6, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 33.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CXSE3 from its 52-week high?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A trades at R$20.64, about 4% below its 52-week high of R$19.76 and 67% above the low of R$12.38 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$12.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Berkshire Hathaway Inc, Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price R$20.64, calculated fair value R$12.46 (−40%), Quality Score 80/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CXSE3 calculated?
We run Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$12.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was R$20.64. Our model-based fair value is R$12.46, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide (R$9.35 to R$25.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) come from?
Earnings per share at Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A grew +17.2 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +4.3 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The market capitalisation of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is R$61.9B (≈ $12.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is 24.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Earnings per share at Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A are R$1.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The dividend yield of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is 3.3% (payout 46.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The net margin of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is 75.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is 31.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is 25.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
The operating margin of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is 81.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Revenue at Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Earnings per share at Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A are growing +9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) carry?
The net debt of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is R$18.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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