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Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · BR · Market cap R$66.1B

CS Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 · SA
PriceR$19.62
Fair ValueR$18.60
Upside-5.2%
Quality82/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 75.1% net margin
generates free cash flow
4.64% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Wide moat 91/100
Evidence: High Range R$13.95 – R$23.25 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −6.1% over the past month.

A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$22.44 R$4.75 Fair Value R$18.60 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$4.75 – R$22.44 · fair‑value band R$13.95 – R$23.25 · the R$19.62 price screens above the R$18.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) currently trades at R$19.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$18.60, implying the stock looks roughly 5.2% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 82/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A generated revenue of R$5.8B at a net margin of 75.1%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.6%. Net debt stands at R$18.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$13.95 (bear case) to R$23.25 (bull case); at R$19.62, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -5%, CXSE3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$8.52 R$10.03 R$33.41 76
Growth DCF R$21.41 R$41.95 R$81.15 72
Gordon GGM R$11.59 R$24.09 R$38.22 70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$22.45 R$37.73 R$81.51 38
5Y Revenue Exit R$7.39 R$10.08 R$14.74 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R$17.39 R$31.71 R$57.74 41
5Y P/E Exit R$21.45 R$44.18 R$73.36 38
10Y Revenue Exit R$11.74 R$17.37 R$22.09 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R$18.84 R$36.31 R$67.44 37
10Y P/E Exit R$21.70 R$44.01 R$82.15 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$9.73 R$67.84 R$95.20 54
Lynch FV R$20.20 R$28.85 R$37.51 50
PEG = 1.0 R$20.20 R$28.85 R$37.51 46
EPV R$13.62 R$15.89 R$17.88 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$11.59 R$24.09 R$38.22 70
DDM Multi-Stage R$11.59 R$20.31 R$25.28 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$21.46 R$28.61 R$35.76 63
P/S Multiple R$1.54 R$2.05 R$2.56 58
P/B Multiple R$10.16 R$13.55 R$16.94 55
EV/EBIT R$21.73 R$28.98 R$36.22 53
EV/EBITDA R$15.70 R$20.93 R$26.17 54
EV/Revenue R$1.44 R$2.05 R$2.67 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$2.26 R$3.03 R$4.52 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$21.41 R$41.95 R$81.15 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$8.52 R$10.03 R$33.41 76
ROIC Compounder R$16.67 R$23.60 R$33.01 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$27.00 R$38.57 R$50.14 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (R$41.95) versus Asset-Based (R$3.03). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$5.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.6%
Net margin 75.1%
Return on equity 31.6%
Free cash flow R$4.3B FY2025
P/E ratio 15.1
More key figures
Operating margin 81.8%
EPS (TTM) R$1.46
Dividend yield 4.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +9.5%
Net debt R$18.4M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 82/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution.

Full company description

Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution. It offers life, home and housing, personal accident, and debt-free insurance products for individuals; and life, home and housing, car, and lender's insurance products for businesses. The company also provides social security, including private and corporate pension plans; capitalization; consortium; and brokerage and intermediation of security products. In addition, it engages in the acquisition of equity interests or holding; administration, marketing, and provision of private health and dental plans; structuring, administration, and marketing of credit letters; and reinsurance and retrocession transactions. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brasília, Brazil. Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Caixa Econômica Federal.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A reported revenue of R$2.5B in FY2025 versus R$895M in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$4.3B in FY2025, compounding +24.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$2.5B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+77.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+50.6%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y)
+19.0%
Revenue +28.8%/yr
FY21 R$895M
FY22 R$3.7B
FY23 R$1.9B
FY24 R$5.0B
FY25 R$2.5B
Net income +24.8%/yr
FY21 R$1.8B
FY22 R$3.0B
FY23 R$3.5B
FY24 R$3.8B
FY25 R$4.3B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CXSE3

Peer Group

Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −5% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Return on assets 20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 75% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 82% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.88× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 11.32× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 26 · sector 43
FUTURE 38 · sector 31
PAST 100 · sector 49
HEALTH 0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 93 · sector 45

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB 8,562 MXN 10,844 MXN +27%
Allianz SE ALV €421.00 €369.31 -12%
Zurich Insurance Group ZURN CHF 624.40 CHF 619.80 -1%
AXA SA AXAN 888.28 MXN 1,249 MXN +41%
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G €42.90 €12.18 -72%
Sun Life Financial Inc SLF C$114.20 C$87.83 -23%
BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 R$40.71 R$60.39 +48%
Tryg A/S TRYG kr 154.00 kr 116.45 -24%
PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA 20,625 IDR 4,176 IDR -80%
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company ICICIGI ₹1,624 ₹721.66 -56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$18.60 versus a price of R$19.62, about −5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CXSE3?
Our model-based fair value for Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is R$18.60 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$19.62.
What is the quality score of CXSE3?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A has a Quality Score of 82/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3)?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$5.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CXSE3?
The net profit margin of Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A is about 75.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 75.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A pay a dividend?
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.74% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 14, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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