Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · BR · Market cap R$66.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −6.1% over the past month.
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$4.75 – R$22.44 · fair‑value band R$13.95 – R$23.25 · the R$19.62 price screens above the R$18.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) currently trades at R$19.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$18.60, implying the stock looks roughly 5.2% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 82/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A generated revenue of R$5.8B at a net margin of 75.1%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.6%. Net debt stands at R$18.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$13.95 (bear case) to R$23.25 (bull case); at R$19.62, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -5%, CXSE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (R$41.95) versus Asset-Based (R$3.03). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution.
Full company description
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution. It offers life, home and housing, personal accident, and debt-free insurance products for individuals; and life, home and housing, car, and lender's insurance products for businesses. The company also provides social security, including private and corporate pension plans; capitalization; consortium; and brokerage and intermediation of security products. In addition, it engages in the acquisition of equity interests or holding; administration, marketing, and provision of private health and dental plans; structuring, administration, and marketing of credit letters; and reinsurance and retrocession transactions. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brasília, Brazil. Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Caixa Econômica Federal.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A reported revenue of R$2.5B in FY2025 versus R$895M in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$4.3B in FY2025, compounding +24.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company ICICIGI | ₹1,624 | ₹721.66 | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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