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Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited $1.84, price $2.26, upside -18.5%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · US · ADR · Based in China · ISIN US25445D1019

DC Dingdong (Cayman) Limited logo Some data Oct 12, 2026

Dingdong (Cayman) Limited

DDL · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Our calculation puts a fair price 19% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr in USD)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 46/100
Thin margins · 2.9% net margin (TTM)
Insider activity 45/100
Some data
Fair value $1.84 · Overvalued (−18.5%)
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 16/100
Watch Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$36.40 $1.08 Fair Value $1.84 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.08 – $36.40 · fair‑value band $1.29 – $2.39 · the $2.26 price screens above the $1.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.

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Company profile

Dingdong (Cayman) Limited operates an e-commerce company in China. The company provides fresh groceries, including vegetables, meat and eggs, fruits, and seafood.

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Dingdong (Cayman) Limited operates an e-commerce company in China. The company provides fresh groceries, including vegetables, meat and eggs, fruits, and seafood. It also offers prepared food, such as ready-to-eat, ready-to-heat, ready-to-cook, and ready-to-mix food; and other food products, such as baked goods, dairy, seasonings, beverages, oil, and snacks. The company offers its products through traditional offline, as well as online channels through Dingdong Fresh app, mini-programs, and third-party platforms. Dingdong (Cayman) Limited was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR (DDL) currently trades at $2.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.84, 18.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $9.21 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the $2.26 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.83, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.29 (bear) to $2.39 (bull), the price of $2.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR reported revenue of $24.4B in FY2025 versus $20.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was $222M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $490M · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.5% · Operating margin −96.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −19%, DDL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.29 Fair Value $1.84 Bull $2.39
Price $2.26 · Upside -18.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $30.05 $45.66 $82.91 78
Growth DCF $29.09 $48.23 $77.04 77
Owner Earnings $16.73 $26.73 $44.26 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $30.05 $45.66 $82.91 78
Owner Earnings $16.73 $26.73 $44.26 75
5Y Revenue Exit $18.64 $26.13 $36.56 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $21.89 $33.41 $48.97 75
5Y P/E Exit $26.17 $43.39 $64.46 70
10Y Revenue Exit $22.29 $31.27 $43.73 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $24.55 $36.49 $55.68 68
10Y P/E Exit $27.25 $43.38 $68.72 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $8.27 $51.74 $72.26 63
Lynch FV $14.90 $21.29 $27.68 61
PEG = 1.0 $14.90 $21.29 $27.68 57
EPV $11.28 $11.99 $12.58 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $19.15 $25.54 $31.92 63
P/S Multiple $15.50 $20.67 $25.84 58
P/B Multiple $15.50 $20.67 $25.84 55
EV/EBIT $15.29 $18.36 $21.43 66
EV/EBITDA $18.34 $22.42 $26.51 67
EV/Revenue $12.65 $15.47 $18.28 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.86 $3.83 $5.71 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $29.09 $48.23 $77.04 77
Rev-Margin DCF $18.64 $26.30 $37.17 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.81 $9.21 $15.66 68
ROIC Compounder $11.28 $11.99 $12.58 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $21.28 $30.40 $39.52 67

P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 65
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 45
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−27.9% (2020) → 0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

DDL screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 73 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −18.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1.0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −96.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −98.8% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)9 · sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 13
PAST (return on equity)4 · sector 51
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD €32.13 €53.98 +68% vs DDL
CP ALL Public Company CPALL 43.00 THB 58.21 THB +35% vs DDL
Carrefour SA CA €15.98 €20.64 +29% vs DDL
Metro Inc MRU C$90.38 C$97.54 +8% vs DDL
George Weston Limited WN C$101.19 C$72.52 −28% vs DDL
Loblaw Companies Limited L C$62.64 C$44.76 −29% vs DDL
BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS 424.75 TRY 247.71 TRY −42% vs DDL
Kesko Oyj KESKOB €23.02 €12.99 −44% vs DDL
The Kroger Co KR $59.03 $30.42 −48% vs DDL
Woolworths Group WOW A$39.59 A$19.56 −51% vs DDL

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Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR · Fair Value
$1.84 −19%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DDL

Frequently asked questions

Is Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.84 versus a price of $2.26, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DDL?
Our model-based fair value for Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is $1.84 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.26.
What is the quality score of DDL?
Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.84 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.29, optimistic scenario $2.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.84, about −19% upside versus a price of $2.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.29, optimistic scenario $2.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR it is $1.84 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of $2.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, DDL trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.26, fair value $1.84, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DDL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.84). For Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR the two are $0.4190 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR worth?
The market values Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR at about $490M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is $2.26; our models calculate a fair value of $1.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DDL?
Our models span a range for Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR: cautious scenario $1.29, base $1.84, optimistic $2.39 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price $2.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DDL?
Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 (as of Oct 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.84 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity 1.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DDL from its 52-week high?
Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR trades at $2.26, about 29% below its 52-week high of $3.20 and 35% above the low of $1.67 (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price $2.26, calculated fair value $1.84 (−19%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DDL calculated?
We run Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was $2.26. Our model-based fair value is $1.84, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.29 to $2.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
The market capitalisation of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is $490M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is 0.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
Earnings per share at Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR are $−0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
The net margin of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is −14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
The operating margin of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is −96.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
Revenue at Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is growing −98.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL)?
Earnings per share at Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR are growing +167% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL) generate?
The free cash flow of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is $348M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL) carry?
The net debt of Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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