Coles Group (COL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$31.6B

A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$21.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range (A$10.24 to A$21.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$13.34 – A$24.41 · fair‑value band A$10.24 – A$21.09 · the A$24.36 price screens above the A$15.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Coles Group (COL) currently trades at A$24.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$15.86, implying the stock looks roughly 34.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Coles Group generated revenue of A$45.1B at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.5%. Net debt stands at A$9.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$10.24 (bear case) to A$21.09 (bull case); at A$24.36, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -35%, COL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (A$16.07) versus Asset-Based (A$1.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets and Liquor segments. The company operates various supermarkets, which offers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, and liquor; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and …

Full company description

Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets and Liquor segments. The company operates various supermarkets, which offers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, and liquor; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and collect locations. Its Coles Financial Services provides insurance, credit cards, and personal loans to Australian families. The company is also involved in the retailing of liquor through its various stores under the Liquorland, First Choice Liquor Market, and Vintage Cellars brand names, as well as retail media services through its store network and online platforms. In addition, it operates as flybuys loyalty program. The company was formerly known as Coles Myer Ltd. and changed its name to Coles Group Limited in November 2006. Coles Group Limited was founded in 1914 and is based in Hawthorn East, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Coles Group reported revenue of A$44.4B in FY2025 versus A$39.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.8%/yr from FY2021.

COL screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →

Peer Group

Grocery Stores · 82 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.