Coles Group Ltd (COL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Coles Group Ltd stock A$17.03, price A$22.60, that is 24.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$13.14 – A$24.55 · fair‑value band A$11.71 – A$21.29 · the A$22.60 price screens above the A$17.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets and Liquor segments.
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The company operates various supermarkets, which offers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, and liquor; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and collect locations.
Its Coles Financial Services provides insurance, credit cards, and personal loans to Australian families.
The company is also involved in the retailing of liquor through its various stores under the Liquorland, First Choice Liquor Market, and Vintage Cellars brand names, as well as retail media services through its store network and online platforms. In addition, it operates as flybuys loyalty program.
The company was formerly known as Coles Myer Ltd. and changed its name to Coles Group Limited in November 2006. Coles Group Limited was founded in 1914 and is based in Hawthorn East, Australia.
Stock analysis
Coles Group Ltd (COL) currently trades at A$22.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$17.03, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$21.59 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$22.60 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$5.93, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$11.71 (bear) to A$21.29 (bull), the price of A$22.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Coles Group Ltd reported revenue of A$45.7B in FY2026 versus A$38.3B in FY2022, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.1B in FY2026, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$30.4B (≈ $21.0B) Large · P/E ratio 27.9 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) A$0.8100 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 28.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −25%, COL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$11.71Fair Value A$17.03BullA$21.29
Price A$22.60 · Downside -24.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0283 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.2% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (53 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Australian grocery scale provides the main strength while thin margins and intense competition represent the chief weakness.
Main risk: Aldi’s limited-range discount approach and Woolworths’ automation investments could erode Coles’ market share or force sustained price cuts that compress margins in the concentrated Australian grocery sector.
Bull case: Coles could leverage its Ocado automation trials and AI tools for personalised shopping to lower online fulfilment costs faster than rivals and retain customers through convenience and targeted offers.
Bear case: If regulatory penalties and compliance burdens mount while Aldi and Woolworths intensify price competition, Coles could face sustained margin pressure and gradual loss of customers to lower-cost alternatives.
Coles is testing robots from Ocado to handle online grocery orders directly in its supermarkets. The move aims to cut fulfillment costs and shorten delivery times amid rivalry with Woolworths. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Does the potential for faster, cheaper online operations strengthen the core business enough to justify the current valuation?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Coles Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COL
Frequently asked questions
Is Coles Group Ltd (COL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$17.03 versus a price of A$22.60, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COL?
Our model-based fair value for Coles Group Ltd is A$17.03 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$22.60.
What is the quality score of COL?
Coles Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$17.03 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$11.71, optimistic scenario A$21.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Coles Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$17.03, about 25% lower versus a price of A$22.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$11.71, optimistic scenario A$21.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
Coles Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$45.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Coles Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Coles Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Coles Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COL use?
Our models discount Coles Group Ltd at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Coles Group Ltd that is +1.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Coles Group Ltd (COL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Coles Group Ltd grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies +1.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Coles Group Ltd (COL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Coles Group Ltd (+1.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.11 %: that much free cash flow Coles Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Coles Group Ltd it is A$17.03 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$22.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Coles Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, COL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$22.60, fair value A$17.03, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$22.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$17.03). For Coles Group Ltd the two are A$5.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Coles Group Ltd worth?
The market values Coles Group Ltd at about A$30.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$22.60; our models calculate a fair value of A$17.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COL?
Our models span a range for Coles Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$11.71, base A$17.03, optimistic A$21.29 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$22.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COL?
Coles Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.9 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$17.03 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings: 22.7. Other multiples: P/B 7.7, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Coles Group Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 28.1%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COL from its 52-week high?
Coles Group Ltd trades at A$22.60, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$24.55 and 14% above the low of A$19.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$17.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Coles Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Coles Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$22.60, calculated fair value A$17.03 (−25%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COL calculated?
We run Coles Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$17.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Coles Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$22.60. Our model-based fair value is A$17.03, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Coles Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$21.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$11.71 to A$21.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Coles Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The market capitalisation of Coles Group Ltd is A$30.4B (≈ $21.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Coles Group Ltd is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
Earnings per share at Coles Group Ltd are A$0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The dividend yield of Coles Group Ltd is 3.2% (payout 90.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The net margin of Coles Group Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Coles Group Ltd is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Coles Group Ltd is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
The operating margin of Coles Group Ltd is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
Revenue at Coles Group Ltd is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Coles Group Ltd (COL)?
Earnings per share at Coles Group Ltd are growing +14.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Coles Group Ltd (COL) carry?
The net debt of Coles Group Ltd is A$9.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026