Woolworths Group (WOW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$47.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +2.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$17.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$25.59 – A$40.55 · fair‑value band A$10.05 – A$17.88 · the A$40.21 price screens above the A$13.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Woolworths Group (WOW) currently trades at A$40.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$13.40, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Woolworths Group generated revenue of A$70.3B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at A$16.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$10.05 (bear case) to A$17.88 (bull case); at A$40.21, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -67%, WOW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$20.36) versus Asset-Based (A$2.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Woolworths Group Limited operates retail stores in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Australian Food, Australian B2B, New Zealand Food, W Living, and Other segments. The Australian Food segment procures and resells food and related products; and provides services to customers in Australia.
Full company description
Woolworths Group Limited operates retail stores in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Australian Food, Australian B2B, New Zealand Food, W Living, and Other segments. The Australian Food segment procures and resells food and related products; and provides services to customers in Australia. The Australian B2B segment engages in procurement and distribution of food and related products for resale to other businesses, as well as provision of supply chain services to business customers in Australia. The New Zealand Food segment is involved in the procurement of food, drinks, household essentials and related products; and provides services to retail customers in New Zealand. W Living segment procures general merchandise products to customers in Australia. The Other segment operates Quantium retail store. The company was formerly known as Woolworths Limited and changed its name to Woolworths Group Limited in December 2017. Woolworths Group Limited was incorporated in 1924 and is based in Bella Vista, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Woolworths Group reported revenue of A$69.1B in FY2025 versus A$55.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$963M in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.
WOW screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 82 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.38 SGD | +26% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOA | €19.94 | €12.13 | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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