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Ørsted A/S (DOGEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ørsted A/S $8.85, price $21.34, upside -58.5%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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ØA
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Ørsted A/S
DOGEF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $8.85 · Strongly overvalued (−58.5%)
!Quality 29/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +11.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 38/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.34 – $86.86 · fair‑value band $6.64 – $11.06 · the $21.34 price screens above the $8.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Ørsted A/S, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, and energy storage and combined heat and power (CHP) plants. It operates through Offshore, Onshore, and Bioenergy & Other segments.
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Ørsted A/S, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, and energy storage and combined heat and power (CHP) plants. It operates through Offshore, Onshore, and Bioenergy & Other segments. The Offshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore wind farms in Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. The Onshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates onshore wind and solar farms in the United States, including integrated storage. The Bioenergy & Other segment generates heat and power and offers ancillary services from CHP plants in Denmark; and optimizes its gas portfolio, as well as manages its Danish and Swedish B2B business. The company was formerly known as DONG Energy A/S and changed its name to Ørsted A/S in November 2017. Ørsted A/S was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Fredericia, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Ørsted A/S (DOGEF) currently trades at $21.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.85, 58.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $16.40 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the $21.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.08, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.64 (bear) to $11.06 (bull), the price of $21.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ørsted A/S reported revenue of 63.5B DKK in FY2025 versus 69.1B DKK in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B DKK in FY2025, compounding −31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $428B · P/E ratio 25.9 · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) $0.8500 · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 25.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −59%, DOGEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.64
Fair Value $8.85
Bull $11.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6427 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$17.18
$16.40
$16.40
76
EPV
$17.96
$22.39
$26.03
74
ROIC Compounder
$17.96
$22.39
$27.07
72
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.38
$7.29
$9.11
66
PEG = 1.0
$1.04
$1.56
$2.08
57
EPV
$17.96
$22.39
$26.03
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.30
$2.08
$3.12
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.30
$2.08
$2.60
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.77
$8.85
$11.19
63
P/S Multiple
$6.25
$8.33
$10.41
58
P/B Multiple
$6.25
$8.33
$10.41
55
EV/EBIT
$23.95
$34.10
$43.99
65
EV/EBITDA
$29.41
$41.13
$53.10
67
EV/Revenue
$16.40
$26.03
$35.66
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$11.97
$16.14
$24.21
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$17.18
$16.40
$16.40
76
ROIC Compounder
$17.96
$22.39
$27.07
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.95
$7.03
$9.11
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
29/100
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Profitability
14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
’14
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’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−36.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.2% vs −17.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
DOGEF screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- Ørsted Begins Construction on Blackwater Solar in New Mexico and Announces Wetland Restoration Partnership
- Ørsted receives final opinion regarding taxation of UK offshore wind farms
- Ørsted Gets Favorable Tax Opinion on Two UK Offshore Wind Farms
- Is Ørsted (CPSE:ORSTED) Below Fair Value Following Borkum Riffgrund 3 Commercial Operations?
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| SDIC Power Holdings 600886 | ¥14.86 | ¥16.35 | +10% |
| EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR | €12.99 | €3.53 | −73% |
| China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 | ¥3.61 | ¥2.40 | −34% |
| Public Power Corporation PPC | €22.96 | €7.44 | −68% |
| GD Power Development Co 600795 | ¥5.34 | ¥5.99 | +12% |
| BEP BEP | $28.42 | $71.46 | +151% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ørsted A/S (DOGEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.85 versus a price of $21.34, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DOGEF?
Our model-based fair value for Ørsted A/S is $8.85 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.34.
What is the quality score of DOGEF?
Ørsted A/S has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.85 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.64, optimistic scenario $11.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ørsted A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.85, about −59% upside versus a price of $21.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.64, optimistic scenario $11.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
Ørsted A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 80.2B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ørsted A/S it is $8.85 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $21.34. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ørsted A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, DOGEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.34, fair value $8.85, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DOGEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.85). For Ørsted A/S the two are $12.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ørsted A/S worth?
The market values Ørsted A/S at about $428B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $21.34; our models calculate a fair value of $8.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DOGEF?
Our models span a range for Ørsted A/S: cautious scenario $6.64, base $8.85, optimistic $11.06 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $21.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is DOGEF from its 52-week high?
Ørsted A/S trades at $21.34, about 23% below its 52-week high of $27.67 and 21% above the low of $17.59 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ørsted A/S?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ørsted A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $21.34, calculated fair value $8.85 (−59%), Quality Score 29/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DOGEF calculated?
We run Ørsted A/S through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ørsted A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $21.34. Our model-based fair value is $8.85, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ørsted A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Ørsted A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
The market capitalisation of Ørsted A/S is $428B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Ørsted A/S is 25.9 (as of Jun 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ørsted A/S is 1.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
Earnings per share at Ørsted A/S are $0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
The net margin of Ørsted A/S is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ørsted A/S is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ørsted A/S is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
The operating margin of Ørsted A/S is 25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
Revenue at Ørsted A/S is growing +33.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ørsted A/S (DOGEF)?
Earnings per share at Ørsted A/S are growing −84.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ørsted A/S (DOGEF) generate?
The free cash flow of Ørsted A/S is −31.6B DKK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ørsted A/S (DOGEF) carry?
The net debt of Ørsted A/S is 78.6B DKK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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