Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Elnusa Tbk IDR 946, price IDR 685, upside +38.1%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 176.13 IDR – 927.98 IDR · fair‑value band 756.13 IDR – 1,203 IDR · the 685.00 IDR price screens below the 945.61 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Elnusa Tbk provides oil and gas services in Indonesia. The company operates through Integrated Upstream Oil and Gas Services; Oil and Gas Support Services; and Energy Distribution and Logistics Services segments.
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PT Elnusa Tbk provides oil and gas services in Indonesia. The company operates through Integrated Upstream Oil and Gas Services; Oil and Gas Support Services; and Energy Distribution and Logistics Services segments. It offers geophysical/seismic data, oil and gas drilling, and oilfield services; and oil country tubular goods, threading for oil and gas drilling, oil and gas data management, integrated information technology development, telecommunication, network, storage, and satellite telecommunications services. The company provides data and information on energy and mineral resources management services; very-small-aperture terminal-based communication systems; ship rental services and agents; pipe manufacturing and trading services; and trading, distribution, and marketing of oil and gas products. Further, the company distributes and trades in oil and chemicals; operates retail gas stations; and offers mechanical maintenance. The company was formerly known as PT Electronika Nusantara and changed its name to PT Elnusa Tbk in June 1984. PT Elnusa Tbk was founded in 1969 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Elnusa Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Pertamina Hulu Energi.
Stock analysis
Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) currently trades at 685.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 945.61 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2,407 IDR per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the 685.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 487.69 IDR, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 756.13 IDR (bear) to 1,203 IDR (bull), the price of 685.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Elnusa Tbk reported revenue of 14.5T IDR in FY2025 versus 8.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was 718B IDR in FY2025, compounding +60.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 5.0T IDR (≈ $279M) · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) 98.80 IDR · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 38%, ELSA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 756.13 IDRFair Value 945.61 IDRBull 1,203 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (72.54 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.7% a year for the price and +3.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+38% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elnusa Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELSA
Frequently asked questions
Is Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 945.61 IDR versus a price of 685.00 IDR, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ELSA?
Our model-based fair value for Elnusa Tbk is 945.61 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 685.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ELSA?
Elnusa Tbk has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 945.61 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 756.13 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,203 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elnusa Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 945.61 IDR, about +38% upside versus a price of 685.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 756.13 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,203 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
Elnusa Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Elnusa Tbk pay a dividend?
Elnusa Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Elnusa Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -28.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELSA use?
Our models discount Elnusa Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Elnusa Tbk that is -28.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Elnusa Tbk grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies -28.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Elnusa Tbk (-28.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.26 %: that much free cash flow Elnusa Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elnusa Tbk it is 945.61 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 685.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Elnusa Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ELSA trades below its calculated fair value: price 685.00 IDR, fair value 945.61 IDR, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELSA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (685.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (945.61 IDR). For Elnusa Tbk the two are 260.61 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elnusa Tbk worth?
The market values Elnusa Tbk at about 5.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 685.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 945.61 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELSA?
Our models span a range for Elnusa Tbk: cautious scenario 756.13 IDR, base 945.61 IDR, optimistic 1,203 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 685.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELSA?
Elnusa Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 945.61 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ELSA?
The PEG ratio of Elnusa Tbk is 2.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elnusa Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELSA from its 52-week high?
Elnusa Tbk trades at 685.00 IDR, about 26% below its 52-week high of 927.98 IDR and 54% above the low of 443.58 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 945.61 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elnusa Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elnusa Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 685.00 IDR, calculated fair value 945.61 IDR (+38%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELSA calculated?
We run Elnusa Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 945.61 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Elnusa Tbk currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 685.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 945.61 IDR, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elnusa Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (756.13 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) come from?
Earnings per share at Elnusa Tbk grew +6.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.9 %, EBIT margin −7.3 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Elnusa Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The market capitalisation of Elnusa Tbk is 5.0T IDR (≈ $279M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elnusa Tbk is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
Earnings per share at Elnusa Tbk are 98.80 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The dividend yield of Elnusa Tbk is 6.1% (payout 42.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The net margin of Elnusa Tbk is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elnusa Tbk is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elnusa Tbk is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
The operating margin of Elnusa Tbk is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
Revenue at Elnusa Tbk is growing −3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)?
Earnings per share at Elnusa Tbk are growing +1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) hold?
Elnusa Tbk holds more cash than debt, 2.1T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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