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Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Evaxion Biotech AS $1.38, price $3.28, upside -58.0%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US29970R3030

EB Evaxion Biotech AS logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Evaxion Biotech AS

EVAX · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $1.38 · Strongly overvalued (−58%)
!Quality 32/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +125.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -129.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$634.00 $1.31 Fair Value $1.38 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.31 – $634.00 · fair‑value band $0.9095 – $1.73 · the $3.28 price screens above the $1.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Evaxion A/S, a clinical-stage biotech company, develops artificial intelligence-powered immunology vaccines.

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Evaxion A/S, a clinical-stage biotech company, develops artificial intelligence-powered immunology vaccines. The company develops EVX-01, which is in phase 2 global multi-center clinical trial for the treatment of advanced melanoma; EVX-03, DNA-based cancer vaccine for the treatment of solid tumors; and EVX-04, a therapeutic cancer vaccine candidate, which is in phase 1 trial for acute myeloid leukemia. Its programs also include vaccines that are in pre-clinical stage, which includes EVX-B1, a multi-component prophylactic vaccine targeting skin and soft tissue infections with S. aureus bacteria; EVX-B2 to target multi-component prophylactic vaccine against gonorrhea bacteria; EVX-B3 to target bacterial pathogen associated with repeated infections; and EVX-V1, a multi-component prophylactic vaccine candidate for cytomegalovirus. The company was formerly known as Evaxion Biotech A/S and changed its name to Evaxion A/S in May 2025. Evaxion A/S was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Horsholm, Denmark.

Stock analysis

Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX) currently trades at $3.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.38, implying the stock looks roughly 138.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.9095 (bear) to $1.73 (bull), the price of $3.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Evaxion Biotech AS reported revenue of $7.5M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$7.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $25.4M · P/S ratio 3.38 · EPS (TTM) $−1.00 · Net margin −102% · Return on equity −82.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −100% · Operating margin −122% · Revenue (TTM) $7.5M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −58%, EVAX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.9095 Fair Value $1.38 Bull $1.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.02 $1.37 $2.04 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.02 $1.37 $2.04 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

EVAX screens 138% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 649 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Below median
Fair Value upside −58% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −23% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −130% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −122% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.31× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.49× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.38× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)84 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $516.34 $567.97 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Evaxion Biotech AS · Fair Value
$1.38 −138%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Evaxion Biotech AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EVAX

Frequently asked questions

Is Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.38 versus a price of $3.28, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EVAX?
Our model-based fair value for Evaxion Biotech AS is $1.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.28.
What is the quality score of EVAX?
Evaxion Biotech AS has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9095, optimistic scenario $1.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Evaxion Biotech AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.38, about −58% upside versus a price of $3.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9095, optimistic scenario $1.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
Evaxion Biotech AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evaxion Biotech AS it is $1.38 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.28. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Evaxion Biotech AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EVAX trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.28, fair value $1.38, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EVAX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.38). For Evaxion Biotech AS the two are $1.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evaxion Biotech AS worth?
The market values Evaxion Biotech AS at about $25.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.28; our models calculate a fair value of $1.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EVAX?
Our models span a range for Evaxion Biotech AS: cautious scenario $0.9095, base $1.38, optimistic $1.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Evaxion Biotech AS (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −82.9%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EVAX from its 52-week high?
Evaxion Biotech AS trades at $3.28, about 70% below its 52-week high of $11.01 and 18% above the low of $2.79 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evaxion Biotech AS?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evaxion Biotech AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.28, calculated fair value $1.38 (−58%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EVAX calculated?
We run Evaxion Biotech AS through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Evaxion Biotech AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.28. Our model-based fair value is $1.38, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evaxion Biotech AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.9095 to $1.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Evaxion Biotech AS

How large is the market capitalisation of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
The market capitalisation of Evaxion Biotech AS is $25.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evaxion Biotech AS is 3.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
Earnings per share at Evaxion Biotech AS are $−1.00. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
The net margin of Evaxion Biotech AS is −102% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evaxion Biotech AS is −82.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evaxion Biotech AS is −100% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX)?
The operating margin of Evaxion Biotech AS is −122% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX) generate?
The free cash flow of Evaxion Biotech AS is −$6.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Evaxion Biotech AS (EVAX) hold?
Evaxion Biotech AS holds more cash than debt, $15.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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