Exmar NV (EXM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Exmar NV €7.81, price €11.90, upside -34.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.5137 – €12.00 · fair‑value band €5.47 – €9.57 · the €11.90 price screens above the €7.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Exmar NV engages in the provision of shipping and floating infrastructure solutions worldwide. The company operates through Shipping, Infrastructure, and Supporting Services segments. It transports liquefied gas products, such as liquid natural gas, liquid petroleum gas, butane, propane, anhydrous ammonia, and petrochemical gases.
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Exmar NV engages in the provision of shipping and floating infrastructure solutions worldwide. The company operates through Shipping, Infrastructure, and Supporting Services segments. It transports liquefied gas products, such as liquid natural gas, liquid petroleum gas, butane, propane, anhydrous ammonia, and petrochemical gases. The company also offers floating infrastructure solutions to the oil and gas industries by making use of its asset portfolio, and through developing new assets for near-shore and offshore production, processing, storage or other ancillary services. In addition, it provides ship management, technical and crewing, consultancy and engineering, manufacturing, travel agency, yachting, and investment portfolio services, as well as manufactures ropes for marine, industrial, and offshore applications. The company serves fertilizer, clean energy fuel, and petrochemical industries. Exmar NV was founded in 1829 and is headquartered in Antwerp, Belgium. The company operates as a subsidiary of Saverex NV.
Stock analysis
Exmar NV (EXM) currently trades at €11.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.81, implying the stock looks roughly 52.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €15.64 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the €11.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.63, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.47 (bear) to €9.57 (bull), the price of €11.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Exmar NV reported revenue of $258M in FY2025 versus $148M in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was $77.4M in FY2025, compounding +60.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €914M · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 3.57 · EPS (TTM) €1.00 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 30.0% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −34%, EXM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.47Fair Value €7.81Bull €9.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs 7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 27%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)30% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.19× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF11.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA13.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.29× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 4
PAST (return on equity)51· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exmar NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXM
Frequently asked questions
Is Exmar NV (EXM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.81 versus a price of €11.90, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXM?
Our model-based fair value for Exmar NV is €7.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.90.
What is the quality score of EXM?
Exmar NV has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exmar NV (EXM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.47, optimistic scenario €9.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exmar NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.81, about −34% upside versus a price of €11.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.47, optimistic scenario €9.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exmar NV (EXM)?
Exmar NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €248M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Exmar NV pay a dividend?
Exmar NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exmar NV (EXM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exmar NV would have to grow free cash flow by +0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXM use?
Our models discount Exmar NV at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exmar NV that is +0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exmar NV (EXM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exmar NV grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exmar NV (EXM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exmar NV (+0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.35 %: that much free cash flow Exmar NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exmar NV (EXM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exmar NV it is €7.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €11.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exmar NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EXM trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.90, fair value €7.81, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.81). For Exmar NV the two are €4.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exmar NV worth?
The market values Exmar NV at about €914M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €11.90; our models calculate a fair value of €7.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXM?
Our models span a range for Exmar NV: cautious scenario €5.47, base €7.81, optimistic €9.57 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €11.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXM?
Exmar NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.9, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 13.8.
What is the PEG ratio of EXM?
The PEG ratio of Exmar NV is 1.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exmar NV (EXM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exmar NV (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXM from its 52-week high?
Exmar NV trades at €11.90, about 1% below its 52-week high of €12.00 and 29% above the low of €9.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exmar NV?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exmar NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €11.90, calculated fair value €7.81 (−34%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXM calculated?
We run Exmar NV through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Exmar NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €11.90. Our model-based fair value is €7.81, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exmar NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Exmar NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The market capitalisation of Exmar NV is €914M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exmar NV is 3.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exmar NV (EXM)?
Earnings per share at Exmar NV are €1.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The dividend yield of Exmar NV is 5.1% (payout 60.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The net margin of Exmar NV is 30.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exmar NV is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exmar NV (EXM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exmar NV is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exmar NV (EXM)?
The operating margin of Exmar NV is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exmar NV (EXM)?
Revenue at Exmar NV is growing −10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exmar NV (EXM)?
Earnings per share at Exmar NV are growing −87.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Exmar NV (EXM) carry?
The net debt of Exmar NV is €91.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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