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Exosens (EXSNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Exosens is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Exosens
EXSNY · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $14.75 · Overvalued (−20%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +24.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.50% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 63/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
5‑month range $16.15 – $19.13 · fair‑value band $11.06 – $18.44 · the $18.50 price screens above the $14.75 fair value. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Exosens, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells electro-optical technologies in France, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Amplification and Detection and Imaging.
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Exosens, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells electro-optical technologies in France, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Amplification and Detection and Imaging. The company offers image intensifier tubes; cameras, sensors, modules and cores, and imaging systems and solutions, including UV missile warning solution, atmospheric sounder, and spectroradiometer; and detection and imaging products for ions and electrons, photons, and neutrons, as well as micro pore optics and components, such as phosphor screens, resistive glass products, microchannel plates, and electron generator arrays. It also provides bare and energy compensated Geiger- Müller tubes; gamma and neutron detectors; mineral insulated extensions; and silicon photodiodes, as well as methane airborne detection solutions. The company sells its products under the Exosens, Photonis, Xenics, Telops, El-Mul, and Noxant brand names. It serves defense and surveillance, life sciences and environment, industrial control, and nuclear markets. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mérignac, France.
Stock analysis
Exosens, (EXSNY) currently trades at $18.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.75, implying the stock looks roughly 25.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $15.28 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the $18.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.89, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.06 (bear) to $18.44 (bull), the price of $18.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Exosens, reported revenue of €383M in FY2025 versus €201M in FY2022, a compound +24.1%/yr. Reported net income was €30.7M in FY2025, compounding +39.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $939M · P/E ratio 23.7 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) $0.7800 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −20%, EXSNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.06
Fair Value $14.75
Bull $18.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3380 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$14.47
$21.42
$30.15
77
Growth DCF
$14.76
$21.02
$28.50
76
Residual Income
$6.67
$6.84
$6.76
73
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$14.47
$21.42
$30.15
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$8.58
$13.46
$19.30
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$15.20
$25.34
$36.66
71
5Y P/E Exit
$8.23
$12.84
$17.35
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$10.67
$15.28
$20.76
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$14.70
$22.65
$32.41
65
10Y P/E Exit
$10.70
$14.89
$19.45
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.12
$10.28
$13.33
62
PEG = 1.0
$1.88
$2.68
$3.49
55
EPV
$5.56
$6.93
$8.07
71
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$9.54
$12.72
$15.90
63
P/S Multiple
$7.72
$10.29
$12.87
58
P/B Multiple
$7.72
$10.29
$12.87
55
EV/EBIT
$15.78
$22.54
$29.29
65
EV/EBITDA
$18.61
$26.31
$34.01
67
EV/Revenue
$5.04
$9.12
$13.21
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.39
$5.89
$8.79
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$14.76
$21.02
$28.50
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$8.58
$13.79
$19.56
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.67
$6.84
$6.76
73
ROIC Compounder
$5.56
$6.93
$8.07
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$7.35
$10.50
$13.64
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
36
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.1%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+52.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+51.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 21%
2025 sits 67% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+39.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+13.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+12.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+10.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+9.1%
EXSNY screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →
Compare Exosens, with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Exosens (EXSNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.75 versus a price of $18.50, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXSNY?
Our model-based fair value for Exosens, is $14.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.50.
What is the quality score of EXSNY?
Exosens, has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exosens (EXSNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.06, optimistic scenario $18.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exosens, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.75, about −20% upside versus a price of $18.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.06, optimistic scenario $18.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exosens (EXSNY)?
Exosens, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $468M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Exosens, pay a dividend?
Exosens, currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exosens (EXSNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exosens, would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +24.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXSNY use?
Our models discount Exosens, at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exosens, that is +0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exosens (EXSNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Exosens, grew +24.1 % a year. The price currently implies +0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exosens (EXSNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exosens, (+0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.44 %: that much free cash flow Exosens, produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exosens (EXSNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exosens, it is $14.75 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $18.50. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exosens, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, EXSNY trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.50, fair value $14.75, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXSNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.75). For Exosens, the two are $3.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exosens, worth?
The market values Exosens, at about $939M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $18.50; our models calculate a fair value of $14.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXSNY?
Our models span a range for Exosens,: cautious scenario $11.06, base $14.75, optimistic $18.44 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $18.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is EXSNY from its 52-week high?
Exosens, trades at $18.50, about 3% below its 52-week high of $19.13 and 12% above the low of $16.50 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exosens,?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exosens, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $18.50, calculated fair value $14.75 (−20%), Quality Score 54/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXSNY calculated?
We run Exosens, through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Exosens, itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Exosens, right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Exosens,
How large is the market capitalisation of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The market capitalisation of Exosens, is $939M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Exosens, is 23.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exosens, is 1.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exosens (EXSNY)?
Earnings per share at Exosens, are $0.7800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The dividend yield of Exosens, is 0.5% (payout 11.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The net margin of Exosens, is 8.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exosens, is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exosens (EXSNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exosens, is 9.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exosens (EXSNY)?
The operating margin of Exosens, is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much net debt does Exosens (EXSNY) carry?
The net debt of Exosens, is $286M (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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