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FirstRand Limited (FANDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jun 9, 2026: fair value of FirstRand Limited $4.71, price $5.60, upside -15.9%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · Home South Africa · ISIN ZAE000066304

FL FirstRand Limited logo Some data Oct 2, 2026

FirstRand Limited

FANDF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $4.71 · Overvalued (−15.9%)
!Quality 45/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
✓Wide moat 75/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.84 $0.7635 Fair Value $4.71 Oct 2018 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.7635 – $5.84 · fair‑value band $3.54 – $5.89 · the $5.60 price screens above the $4.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments.

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FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments. The company offers deposits and savings products; personal loans; and asset and invoice finance, as well as SME commercial, residential, and buy-to-let mortgages. It also provides life and short-term insurance products; and vehicle finance, instalment credit and fleet management, and corporate and investment banking services. In addition, the company offers asset management, as well as vehicle-related insurance services. Further, it provides franchise advisory, market risk management, capital market flow, and trading and structuring services. It serves retail and public sector customers, small and medium-sized enterprises, businesses, agricultural industry, medium corporates, and institutions. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Stock analysis

FirstRand Limited (FANDF) currently trades at $5.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.71, 15.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $3.99 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $5.60 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.70, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.54 (bear) to $5.89 (bull), the price of $5.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

FirstRand Limited reported revenue of 133B ZAR in FY2025 versus 94.9B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was 43.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $31.4B · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 3.75 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Net margin 32.8% · Return on equity 19.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 44.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −16%, FANDF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.54 Fair Value $4.71 Bull $5.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $2.99 $3.99 $6.81 73
P/E Multiple $4.56 $6.08 $7.60 63
P/B Multiple $2.66 $3.54 $4.43 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.56 $6.08 $7.60 63
P/B Multiple $2.66 $3.54 $4.43 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.27 $1.70 $2.53 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.99 $3.99 $6.81 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.6% vs 7.1%, steady
Profit margin 2015 to 2020 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

FANDF screens overvalued: fair value 16% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −19.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 19.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 32.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 44.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 90.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.34× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.12× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.59× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.0× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $330.83 $188.11 −43%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.28 ¥10.93 +32%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥10.98 ¥13.69 +25%
Bank of America Corporation BAC $55.47 $42.37 −24%
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥6.97 ¥12.94 +86%
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥6.62 ¥9.86 +49%
Royal Bank of Canada RY $200.95 $130.85 −35%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $23.37 $14.86 −36%
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $80.05 $66.44 −17%
Citigroup Inc C $130.80 $107.10 −18%

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FirstRand Limited · Fair Value
$4.71 −16%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FirstRand Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FANDF

Frequently asked questions

Is FirstRand Limited (FANDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.71 versus the last price from Jun 9, 2026 of $5.60, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FANDF?
Our model-based fair value for FirstRand Limited is $4.71 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 9, 2026): $5.60.
What is the quality score of FANDF?
FirstRand Limited has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.71 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.54, optimistic scenario $5.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FirstRand Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.71, about −16% upside versus the last price from Jun 9, 2026 of $5.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.54, optimistic scenario $5.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
FirstRand Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 139B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FirstRand Limited it is $4.71 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $5.60. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FirstRand Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, FANDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.60, fair value $4.71, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FANDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.71). For FirstRand Limited the two are $0.8900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FirstRand Limited worth?
The market values FirstRand Limited at about $31.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $5.60; our models calculate a fair value of $4.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FANDF?
Our models span a range for FirstRand Limited: cautious scenario $3.54, base $4.71, optimistic $5.89 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $5.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FANDF?
FirstRand Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for FirstRand Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 19.9%, debt of 1.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FANDF from its 52-week high?
FirstRand Limited trades at $5.60, about 4% below its 52-week high of $5.84 and 41% above the low of $3.97 (as of Jun 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FirstRand Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FirstRand Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $5.60, calculated fair value $4.71 (−16%), Quality Score 45/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FANDF calculated?
We run FirstRand Limited through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. FirstRand Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 9, 2026 and stands at $5.60. Our model-based fair value is $4.71, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FirstRand Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of FirstRand Limited (FANDF) come from?
Earnings per share at FirstRand Limited grew +7.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +10.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of FirstRand Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
The market capitalisation of FirstRand Limited is $31.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FirstRand Limited is 3.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
Earnings per share at FirstRand Limited are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
The net margin of FirstRand Limited is 32.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FirstRand Limited is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FirstRand Limited is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
The operating margin of FirstRand Limited is 44.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
Revenue at FirstRand Limited is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FirstRand Limited (FANDF)?
Earnings per share at FirstRand Limited are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does FirstRand Limited (FANDF) generate?
The free cash flow of FirstRand Limited is −125B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does FirstRand Limited (FANDF) carry?
The net debt of FirstRand Limited is 112B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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