HSBC Holdings (HSBC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $345B
HSBC Holdings
HSBC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +5.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.68 – $107.09 · fair‑value band $63.50 – $105.84 · the $102.56 price screens above the $84.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
HSBC Holdings (HSBC) currently trades at $102.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $84.67, implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HSBC Holdings generated revenue of $63.8B at a net margin of 35.0%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at $209B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $63.50 (bear case) to $105.84 (bull case); at $102.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -17%, HSBC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($130.42) versus Asset-Based ($34.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking.
Full company description
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The Hong Kong segment is involved in the retail banking and wealth and commercial banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank. The UK segment engages in UK retail banking and wealth, as well as first direct and M&S Bank, UK Commercial Banking, and HSBC Innovation Bank. The Corporate and Institutional Banking segment is involved in transaction banking and capital markets. The International Wealth and Premier Banking segment is involved in the business comprising premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the UK, its private bank, asset management, and insurance businesses. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HSBC Holdings reported revenue of $148B in FY2025 versus $73.9B in FY2021, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was $22.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
HSBC screens 17% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ballard Power raised to Buy at HSBC on 'transformative' GeoPura deal
- Why HSBC is Scaling Back Retail Banking in Egypt and Australia
- HSBC to offload Egypt retail banking unit to Emirates NBD
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $341.10 | $278.99 | -18% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $59.67 | $55.89 | -6% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.16 | ¥17.20 | +69% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.50 | ¥13.44 | +79% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.37 | ¥11.85 | +86% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$305.74 | C$190.48 | -38% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.88 | ¥9.80 | +67% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFCS | C$23.58 | C$27.40 | +16% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 51.02 PLN | 55.60 PLN | +9% |
| UBS Group UBSN | 939.75 MXN | 534.84 MXN | -43% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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