4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc (FDMT) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $505M

Below-average quality, and screening another 37% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($4.45 to $8.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.51 – $38.70 · fair‑value band $4.45 – $8.42 · the $10.75 price screens above the $6.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc (FDMT) currently trades at $10.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.74, implying the stock looks roughly 37.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $88.2M. It earns a return on equity of -34.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $38.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $4.45 (bear case) to $8.42 (bull case); at $10.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 192% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -37%, FDMT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc., a late-stage biotechnology company, engages in the development of adeno-associated virus vectors from its proprietary synthetic vector discovery platform, Therapeutic Vector Evolution in the Netherlands and the United States.

Full company description

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc., a late-stage biotechnology company, engages in the development of adeno-associated virus vectors from its proprietary synthetic vector discovery platform, Therapeutic Vector Evolution in the Netherlands and the United States. The company's lead product candidate is 4D-150 for the treatment of retinal vascular diseases by providing multi-year sustained production of anti-VEGF from the retina with intravitreal injection, as well as for treating wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. It is also developing 4D-710, which is in early-stage study for the treatment of cystic fibrosis; 4D-175 that is in preclinical stage for treating geographic atrophy; and 4D-725, which is in preclinical stage for the treatment of alpha-1 anti-trypsin deficiency lung disease. 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration and licensing agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in EmeryVille, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $85.2M in FY2025 versus $18.0M in FY2021, a compound +47.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$140M in FY2025.

FDMT screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Peer Group

Biotechnology · 603 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.