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4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc $5.42, price $15.00, upside -63.9%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US35104E1001

4M 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc

FDMT · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $5.42 · Strongly overvalued (−64%)
!Quality 33/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +44.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -194.7% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$36.04 $2.51 Fair Value $5.42 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.51 – $36.04 · fair‑value band $3.58 – $6.78 · the $15.00 price screens above the $5.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc., a late-stage biotechnology company, engages in the development of adeno-associated virus vectors from its proprietary synthetic vector discovery platform, Therapeutic Vector Evolution in the Netherlands and the United States.

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4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc., a late-stage biotechnology company, engages in the development of adeno-associated virus vectors from its proprietary synthetic vector discovery platform, Therapeutic Vector Evolution in the Netherlands and the United States. The company's lead product candidate is 4D-150 for the treatment of retinal vascular diseases by providing multi-year sustained production of anti-VEGF from the retina with intravitreal injection, as well as for treating wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. It is also developing 4D-710, which is in early-stage study for the treatment of cystic fibrosis; 4D-175 that is in preclinical stage for treating geographic atrophy; and 4D-725, which is in preclinical stage for the treatment of alpha-1 anti-trypsin deficiency lung disease. 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration and licensing agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in EmeryVille, California.

Stock analysis

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) currently trades at $15.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.42, implying the stock looks roughly 177.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $3.58 (bear) to $6.78 (bull), the price of $15.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $85.2M in FY2025 versus $18.0M in FY2021, a compound +47.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$140M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B · P/S ratio 8.18 · EPS (TTM) $−2.61 · Net margin −195% · Return on equity −43.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −31.4% · Operating margin −2,037% · Revenue (TTM) $92.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −64%, FDMT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.58 Fair Value $5.42 Bull $6.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $4.58 $6.13 $9.15 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.58 $6.13 $9.15 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 98
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 96
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−416.3% (2020) → −187.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

FDMT screens 177% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −64% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −25% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −195% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 251% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 11.46× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc · Fair Value
$5.42 −177%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FDMT

Frequently asked questions

Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.42 versus a price of $15.00, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FDMT?
Our model-based fair value for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is $5.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.00.
What is the quality score of FDMT?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.58, optimistic scenario $6.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.42, about −64% upside versus a price of $15.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.58, optimistic scenario $6.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $92.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc it is $5.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $15.00. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FDMT trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.00, fair value $5.42, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FDMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.42). For 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc the two are $9.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $15.00; our models calculate a fair value of $5.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FDMT?
Our models span a range for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $3.58, base $5.42, optimistic $6.78 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $15.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −43.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FDMT from its 52-week high?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc trades at $15.00, about 11% below its 52-week high of $16.76 and 109% above the low of $7.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $15.00, calculated fair value $5.42 (−64%), Quality Score 33/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FDMT calculated?
We run 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.00. Our model-based fair value is $5.42, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.58 to $6.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The market capitalisation of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is 8.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Earnings per share at 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc are $−2.61. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The net margin of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −195% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −43.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −31.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The operating margin of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −2,037% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Revenue at 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is growing +251% versus a year earlier (3y avg +201%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) generate?
The free cash flow of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −$109M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) hold?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $38.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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