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4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc stock $10.06, price $12.48, that is 19.4% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

4M 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc

FDMT · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 19% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +44.3 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $5.3M (6M)
Fair value $10.06 · Overvalued
Quality 37/100
Loss-making · -194.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/8)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$36.04 $2.51 Fair Value $10.06 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.51 – $36.04 · fair‑value band $7.54 – $12.57 · the $12.48 price screens above the $10.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc., a late-stage biotechnology company, engages in the development of adeno-associated virus vectors from its proprietary synthetic vector discovery platform, Therapeutic Vector Evolution in the Netherlands and the United States.

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The company's lead product candidate is 4D-150 for the treatment of retinal vascular diseases by providing multi-year sustained production of anti-VEGF from the retina with intravitreal injection, as well as for treating wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema.

It is also developing 4D-710, which is in early-stage study for the treatment of cystic fibrosis; 4D-175 that is in preclinical stage for treating geographic atrophy; and 4D-725, which is in preclinical stage for the treatment of alpha-1 anti-trypsin deficiency lung disease. 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration and licensing agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in EmeryVille, California.

Stock analysis

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) currently trades at $12.48, while our estimate is $10.06, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $7.54 (bear) to $12.57 (bull), the price of $12.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $85.2M in FY2025 versus $18.0M in FY2021, a compound +47.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$140M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $877M Small · P/S ratio 7.36 · EPS (TTM) $−2.63 · Return on equity −43.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −31.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2,037% · Revenue (TTM) $92.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) +251%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −19%, FDMT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $7.54 Fair Value $10.06 Bull $12.57
Price $12.48 · Downside -19.4%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 98
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 84
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 58
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 52
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.3M and none bought.

  • SaleScott BizilyChief Legal Officer8× since Nov 17, 2025: 26,770 shares, avg. $12.55$335,834Oct 16, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleDavid KirnOfficer, Director8× since Jun 1, 2026: 400,000 shares, avg. $12.53$5.0MOct 5, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleAshoo GuptaVP, Finance and Controller2× since Dec 20, 2025: 779 shares, avg. $8.64$6,734Mar 20, 2026

Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 9, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−416.3% (2020) → −187.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

FDMT screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 867 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −19.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −24.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −194.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 251.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.73× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 9.53× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 19

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $919.96 $1,275 +39% vs FDMT
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,510,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +10% vs FDMT
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $550.87 $601.80 +9% vs FDMT
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,661 kr 3,880 +6% vs FDMT
argenx SE ARGX $962.27 $908.40 −6% vs FDMT
CSL Limited CSL A$200.73 A$181.40 −10% vs FDMT
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$248.20 HK$152.80 −38% vs FDMT
Roivant Sciences Ltd ROIV $40.67 $17.39 −57% vs FDMT
Celltrion, Inc 068270 210,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs FDMT
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $68.77 $19.01 −72% vs FDMT

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4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FDMT

Frequently asked questions

Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $10.06 versus a price of $12.48, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FDMT?
Our estimate for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is $10.06 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.48.
What is the quality score of FDMT?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $10.06 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $7.54, optimistic scenario $12.57. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $10.06, about 19% lower versus a price of $12.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.54, optimistic scenario $12.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $92.0M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc it is $10.06 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $12.48.
Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, FDMT trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.48, fair value $10.06, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FDMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.06). For 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc the two are $2.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc at about $877M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $12.48; our models calculate a fair value of $10.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FDMT?
Our models span a range for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $7.54, base $10.06, optimistic $12.57 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $12.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −43.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FDMT from its 52-week high?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc trades at $12.48, about 26% below its 52-week high of $16.76 and 74% above the low of $7.19 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $12.48, calculated fair value $10.06 (−19%), Quality Score 37/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $12.48. Our estimate is $10.06, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc right now?
Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The market capitalisation of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is $877M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is 7.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Earnings per share at 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc are $−2.63. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −43.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −31.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
The operating margin of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −2,037% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT)?
Revenue at 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is growing +251% versus a year earlier (3y avg +201%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) generate?
The free cash flow of 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is −$109M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT) hold?
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $38.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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