Flowers Foods, Inc (FLO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $1.6B
Flowers Foods, Inc
FLO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $9.06 to $8.30 (−8.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −11.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $6.23 (bear) to $10.38 (bull), base $8.30. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.90 – $24.89 · fair‑value band $6.23 – $10.38 · the $7.40 price screens below the $8.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Flowers Foods, Inc (FLO) currently trades at $7.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.30, implying the stock looks roughly 12.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Flowers Foods, Inc generated revenue of $5.3B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.23 (bear case) to $10.38 (bull case); at $7.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 12%, FLO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($12.36) versus Asset-Based ($4.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery food products in the United States. The company's principal products include fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, tortillas, baking mixes, and frozen breads and rolls as well as snack items including bars, cakes, cookies, and crackers.
Full company description
Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery food products in the United States. The company's principal products include fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, tortillas, baking mixes, and frozen breads and rolls as well as snack items including bars, cakes, cookies, and crackers. The company offers its products under the Nature's Own, DKB, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder, and Tastykake brand names. It distributes its products through a direct-store-delivery distribution and a warehouse delivery system, as well as operates bakeries. The company's customers include national and regional restaurants, institutions and foodservice distributors, and retail in-store bakeries; wholesale distributors; mass merchandisers, supermarkets, vending outlets, and convenience stores; quick-serve chains, food wholesalers, institutions, dollar stores, and vending companies; and public health care, military commissaries, and prisons, and other governmental institutions. The company was formerly known as Flowers Industries and changed its name to Flowers Foods, Inc. in 2001. Flowers Foods, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Flowers Foods, Inc reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $4.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $83.8M in FY2025, compounding −20.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch FLO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- What's Driving Flowers Foods' Branded Retail Sales Momentum?
- Is Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 653 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
Compare Flowers Foods, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Flowers Foods, Inc (FLO) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of FLO?
What is the quality score of FLO?
What is the revenue of Flowers Foods, Inc (FLO)?
What is the net profit margin of FLO?
Does Flowers Foods, Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Flowers Foods, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.