FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of FOS Capital Ltd A$0.50, price A$0.12, upside +316.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1000 – A$0.3818 · fair‑value band A$0.3500 – A$0.6400 · the A$0.1200 price screens below the A$0.5000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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FOS Capital Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes commercial luminaires, outdoor fittings, linear extruded lighting, and architectural lighting solutions in Australia and New Zealand.
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FOS Capital Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes commercial luminaires, outdoor fittings, linear extruded lighting, and architectural lighting solutions in Australia and New Zealand. The company's brand portfolio includes VEKTA PROFILES, FREND Lighting, megabay, formalighting, JSB, Ghm Eclatec, Securlite durable light, Ecopoint by FOS lighting, Luceplan, Aqua, TAL, liting youngkong, Pixon Technology, RP Group; Klik System, Glowing Structures, Aldridge, and Hawko Lighting. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Richmond, Australia. FOS Capital Limited is a subsidiary of SKM Investment Group Pty Ltd.
Stock analysis
FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) currently trades at A$0.1200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5000, implying the stock looks roughly 76.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.8300 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$0.1200 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.1200, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3500 (bear) to A$0.6400 (bull), the price of A$0.1200 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
FOS Capital Ltd reported revenue of A$25.5M in FY2025 versus A$8.2M in FY2021, a compound +33.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$933K in FY2025, compounding +5.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$8.2M (≈ $5.7M) · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity −4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% · Operating margin 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 317%, FOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.3500Fair Value A$0.5000Bull A$0.6400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+39.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 6%
2025 sits 51% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−37.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −39.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 532 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FOS Capital Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FOS
Frequently asked questions
Is FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.5000 versus a price of A$0.1200, about +317% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FOS?
Our model-based fair value for FOS Capital Ltd is A$0.5000 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1200.
What is the quality score of FOS?
FOS Capital Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.5000 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3500, optimistic scenario A$0.6400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FOS Capital Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.5000, about +317% upside versus a price of A$0.1200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3500, optimistic scenario A$0.6400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
FOS Capital Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$23.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does FOS Capital Ltd pay a dividend?
FOS Capital Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FOS Capital Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -37.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FOS use?
Our models discount FOS Capital Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FOS Capital Ltd that is -37.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FOS Capital Ltd grew +35.7 % a year. The price currently implies -37.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FOS Capital Ltd (-37.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 35.19 %: that much free cash flow FOS Capital Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FOS Capital Ltd it is A$0.5000 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of A$0.1200. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FOS Capital Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, FOS trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1200, fair value A$0.5000, a gap of about +317% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5000). For FOS Capital Ltd the two are A$0.3800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FOS Capital Ltd worth?
The market values FOS Capital Ltd at about A$8.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FOS?
Our models span a range for FOS Capital Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.3500, base A$0.5000, optimistic A$0.6400 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price A$0.1200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for FOS Capital Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −4.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FOS from its 52-week high?
FOS Capital Ltd trades at A$0.1200, about 59% below its 52-week high of A$0.2900 and 20% above the low of A$0.1000 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.5000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FOS Capital Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FOS Capital Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price A$0.1200, calculated fair value A$0.5000 (+317%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FOS calculated?
We run FOS Capital Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.5000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. FOS Capital Ltd currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.1200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.5000, about +317% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FOS Capital Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.3500). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.3500 to A$0.6400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of FOS Capital Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The market capitalisation of FOS Capital Ltd is A$8.2M (≈ $5.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FOS Capital Ltd is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
Earnings per share at FOS Capital Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The dividend yield of FOS Capital Ltd is 8.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The net margin of FOS Capital Ltd is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FOS Capital Ltd is −4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FOS Capital Ltd is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
The operating margin of FOS Capital Ltd is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
Revenue at FOS Capital Ltd is growing −11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FOS Capital Ltd (FOS)?
Earnings per share at FOS Capital Ltd are growing −71.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) carry?
The net debt of FOS Capital Ltd is A$4.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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