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GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of GCL Technology Holdings $0.09, price $0.10, upside -10.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · Home Hong Kong · ISIN KYG3774X1088

GT GCL Technology Holdings logo Thin data Oct 2, 2026

GCL Technology Holdings

GCPEF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $0.0900 · Overvalued (−10.0%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -19.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.4706 $0.0003 Fair Value $0.0900 Jun 2017 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0003 – $0.4706 · fair‑value band $0.0630 – $0.1170 · the $0.1000 price screens above the $0.0900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments.

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GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments. The company manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafer products to companies operating in the solar industry; and operates and manages solar farms located in the United States and the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of ingot; sale of electricity; trading of wafer; research and development, and sales of electronic special materials; construction and sale of solar farm projects; and provision of equity investment, investment management, and asset management, as well as business management, real estate development, and real estate consulting services. The company was formerly known as GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited and changed its name to GCL Technology Holdings Limited in April 2022. GCL Technology Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

Stock analysis

GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF) currently trades at $0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0900, 10.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.0630 (bear) to $0.1170 (bull), the price of $0.1000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

GCL Technology Holdings reported revenue of 14.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 16.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.6B · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Net margin −19.9% · Return on equity −6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% · Operating margin 1.2% · Revenue (TTM) 14.4B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −10%, GCPEF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0630 Fair Value $0.0900 Bull $0.1170
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA $0.1200 $0.1500 $0.1800 67
NCAV (Graham) $0.0900 $0.1200 $0.1800 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.1200 $0.1500 $0.1800 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0900 $0.1200 $0.1800 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 29
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 3/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.5% (2020) → −19.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GCPEF screens overvalued: fair value 10% below the price. Compare with First Solar, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (16 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare GCL Technology Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 105 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside +89.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −19.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 39.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.25× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $176.93 $392.06 +122%
Nextpower Inc NXT $80.85 $88.94 +10%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥11.12 ¥12.13 +9%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,340 ₹2,709 +16%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥3.75 ¥6.49 +73%
Hanwha Solutions Corporation 009830 29,200 KRW 9,611 KRW −67%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥20.04 ¥31.86 +59%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥8.32 ¥4.88 −41%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $30.91 $24.08 −22%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹896.40 ₹648.72 −28%

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GCL Technology Holdings · Fair Value
$0.0900 −10%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GCL Technology Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GCPEF

Frequently asked questions

Is GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0900 versus a price of $0.1000, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GCPEF?
Our model-based fair value for GCL Technology Holdings is $0.0900 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1000.
What is the quality score of GCPEF?
GCL Technology Holdings has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0900 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0630, optimistic scenario $0.1170. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GCL Technology Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0900, about −10% upside versus a price of $0.1000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0630, optimistic scenario $0.1170. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
GCL Technology Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GCL Technology Holdings it is $0.0900 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $0.1000. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GCL Technology Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, GCPEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1000, fair value $0.0900, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GCPEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0900). For GCL Technology Holdings the two are $0.0100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GCL Technology Holdings worth?
The market values GCL Technology Holdings at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $0.1000; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GCPEF?
Our models span a range for GCL Technology Holdings: cautious scenario $0.0630, base $0.0900, optimistic $0.1170 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $0.1000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for GCL Technology Holdings (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −6.8%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GCPEF from its 52-week high?
GCL Technology Holdings trades at $0.1000, about 44% below its 52-week high of $0.1800 and 11% above the low of $0.0900 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GCL Technology Holdings?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GCL Technology Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $0.1000, calculated fair value $0.0900 (−10%), Quality Score 37/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GCPEF calculated?
We run GCL Technology Holdings through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. GCL Technology Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.1000. Our model-based fair value is $0.0900, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GCL Technology Holdings right now?
A fairly wide model range ($0.0630 to $0.1170) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of GCL Technology Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
The market capitalisation of GCL Technology Holdings is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GCL Technology Holdings is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
Earnings per share at GCL Technology Holdings are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
The net margin of GCL Technology Holdings is −19.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GCL Technology Holdings is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GCL Technology Holdings is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
The operating margin of GCL Technology Holdings is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
Revenue at GCL Technology Holdings is growing +39.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF)?
Earnings per share at GCL Technology Holdings are growing −19.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF) generate?
The free cash flow of GCL Technology Holdings is −5.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GCL Technology Holdings (GCPEF) carry?
The net debt of GCL Technology Holdings is 4.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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